According to the national accounts report released by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) on September 16, 2025, the Uruguayan economy continued its growth in the second quarter of 2025, but at a slower pace. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter (January-March), based on seasonally adjusted figures. Compared to the same period last year (April-June 2024), the economy recorded a growth rate of 2.1%.

Growth Drivers and Trends by Key Sectors 

This growth is primarily attributed to private consumption, exports, and the revitalization of specific industrial sectors. During the second quarter, private consumption increased by 1.7% year-on-year, demonstrating the resilience of the domestic market. Exports of goods and services rose by 0.5%, while imports increased by 0.7%, indicating an overall increase in trade volume.

Performance varied across industrial sectors. Agriculture, fishing, and mining saw a significant year-on-year growth of 10.6%. The agricultural sector, in particular, led the way with increased production of major crops like soybeans and corn. Manufacturing also grew by 7.6%, thanks to the resumption of production at the state-owned oil refinery ANCAP, which had been shut down for maintenance during the same period last year, and an increase in cellulose production. The meatpacking and dairy manufacturing sectors also contributed to manufacturing growth. Financial services grew by 4.8%, while the commerce, accommodation, and food service sectors saw a modest 0.3% increase.

Conversely, the construction sector saw a contraction of 0.2%, due to reduced investment in other construction areas, such as road and port projects. This overall decline could not be offset by active building construction. Furthermore, the electricity, gas, and water sector shrank significantly by 7.9% due to a decrease in hydropower generation. A drop in energy exports and an increase in imports also worsened the sector's poor performance.

Future Outlook: Mixed Expectations 

Projections for the overall 2025 growth rate vary among different institutions. Experts surveyed by the Central Bank of Uruguay expect the economy to grow by 2.5% this year and 2.0% in 2026. In contrast, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) has a more optimistic outlook, forecasting a growth rate of 2.6% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026.

However, some experts are warning of a potential economic slowdown. Economist Aldo Lema predicts that the slowdown that began in the second quarter will continue into the third. The consulting firm Exante also analyzed that the growth in the first half of the year was a result of a rebound in agriculture and manufacturing, and emphasized the need to closely monitor the current signs of deceleration.

The performance in the second quarter suggests that while the Uruguayan economy remains on a growth trajectory, its momentum is weakening despite a boost from domestic consumption and certain industries. The sluggishness in the construction and energy sectors, in particular, could be a drag on future growth rates. In contrast to the government's optimistic forecast, economic experts are cautioning about a potential slowdown and highlighting the need for a careful policy response.

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