Bitcoin continues its sideways movement, hovering around the KRW 136 million mark, as uncertainty regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) December interest rate decision fuels risk-off sentiment. The current stabilization is attributed to a tight tug-of-war between strong buying from institutional investors and selling pressure from retail traders. Analysts suggest this sideways trend (횡보장) is likely to persist for the time being.

As of 9:00 AM on November 20, Bitcoin was trading at KRW 136.11 million on the domestic virtual asset exchange Bithumb, a 0.31% drop from 24 hours prior. After briefly dipping to the KRW 132 million range overnight, the price recovered some losses. On CoinMarketCap, the dollar-denominated price was $91,278, down 1.43% from the previous trading day, maintaining the $91,000 level.

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, also traded weakly, falling 1.51% to KRW 4.48 million on Bithumb and 3.06% to $3,010 on CoinMarketCap. Major altcoins, including Ripple (-4.80%), Binance Coin (-3.68%), Solana (-2.52%), and Dogecoin (-4.44%), were also experiencing declines.

The "Kimchi Premium," the difference between domestic and international Bitcoin prices, stood at 1.85% as of 9:24 AM, according to the global comparison platform Cryprice. A positive premium indicates that the price in South Korea is higher than overseas markets.

The overall weakness in the virtual asset market stems from the decreasing likelihood of a December rate cut by the Fed. Risk-off sentiment intensified following the release of the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on November 19 (local time), which revealed "strongly differing views" among committee members regarding the direction of the benchmark interest rate in December. This aligns with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's earlier statement that a December cut was "not a done deal." The probability of a cut in December has since fallen to 29.6%, according to the FedWatch tool.

Despite the macroeconomic uncertainty, a power struggle between individual investors and large-scale institutional players is keeping the price range narrow. Timothy Misir, Director of BRN Research, noted on November 19 (local time) that "while retail investors recently deposited 31,800 Bitcoins into exchanges, the number of wallets holding over 1,000 Bitcoins has increased by 2.2% in four months."

Misir concluded that the buying power of long-term holders and whales is currently offsetting the selling from retail and short-term holders, which is helping to maintain the price around the $90,000 level. However, he warned that macro factors, particularly the Fed's December rate decision, could reverse the current situation and increase volatility in the virtual asset market.

The Fear & Greed Index compiled by the global virtual asset data firm Alternative reflected this sentiment, registering 11 today—down from 15 the previous day—indicating a level of "Extreme Fear."

[Copyright (c) Global Economic Times. All Rights Reserved.]