TOKYO — Across the globe, a vibrant green wave has taken over cafes, bakeries, and social media feeds. Matcha, the finely ground powder of specially grown and processed green tea leaves, has officially graduated from a niche traditional Japanese beverage to a global lifestyle phenomenon. But behind the serene aesthetics of whisked matcha lattes and artisanal desserts lies a brewing storm of anxiety in Japan, the heartland of its production.

While farmers and manufacturers are celebrating record-breaking sales, the unprecedented global frenzy has exposed deep vulnerabilities within Japan's agricultural infrastructure, forcing the nation to grapple with supply shortages, an aging farming population, and fierce international competition.

A Historic Export Surge and Thriving Tourism

According to data released by the Sankei Shimbun, Japan's matcha export boom has accelerated dramatically since 2025, fueled heavily by younger demographics worldwide. In 2025, export values doubled year-on-year to reach a staggering 72.1 billion yen (approximately $470 million USD), setting an all-time high. The momentum has only intensified this year, with exports from January to May already surpassing the figures recorded during the same period in previous years.

In Uji, Kyoto Prefecture—historically renowned as one of Japan's premier tea-producing regions—the streets buzz with international tourists and foreign buyers. Queues form daily outside heritage tea shops. Kyoeiseicha, a 190-year-old tea enterprise, offers its premium grade matcha, "Wakei," priced at a hefty 100 to 120 yen per gram. Despite the premium price tag, it is common for international customers to purchase dozens of 30-gram cans in a single transaction. Consequently, Kyoeiseicha’s matcha revenue has surged to three to four times its level from a decade ago, continuously breaking company records.

The Flip Side: Disappearing Products and Agricultural Shrinkage

Yet, this skyrocketing demand has outpaced supply, resulting in visible gaps on supermarket shelves and the phasing out of beloved consumer staples. In August, major food conglomerate Meiji announced the discontinuation of its iconic "Meiji Essel Super Cup Matcha" ice cream. Despite being a steadfast consumer favorite since its launch in 2002, the persistent shortage of matcha raw materials made stable production untenable.

This supply crunch is rooted in decades of agricultural decline. As alternative beverages like coffee gained popularity and overall domestic tea consumption dwindled, Japan’s total tea cultivation area steadily shrank. From over 60,000 hectares in the 1980s, the land dedicated to tea farming dropped below 40,000 hectares by 2020, eventually plunging to 33,400 hectares by 2025.

Compounding this geographic decline is a severe demographic crisis. As tea farmers aged, systematic succession planning failed to take root. Riichi Yoshida, chairman of the Kyoto Prefecture Tea Production Council, noted that historically low leaf prices made it difficult for farming families to justify passing the arduous profession down to their children, accelerating the greying of the agricultural workforce.

The Dilemma of Expansion and Global Competitors

For remaining farmers, ramping up production today carries substantial financial and logistical risks. Tea bushes require a lengthy three-to-four-year cycle from planting saplings to initial harvesting. Furthermore, tencha—the specific shade-grown leaf required for matcha production—involves significantly more complex cultivation and processing methods than sencha, standard green tea leaves.

While the Japanese government has introduced subsidies for farmers transitioning from sencha to tencha production, producers remain hesitant. In an unpredictable global market where the longevity of the matcha craze remains uncertain, making long-term capital investments for massive production expansion is a daunting gamble.

Meanwhile, international competitors are wasting no time. Countries like China and India are aggressively scaling up their own production capacities, intensifying global rivalry in the tea market.

To secure long-term viability, experts argue that structural adaptation is essential. Dr. Yoriyuki Nakamura, Director of the Tea Science Research Center at Shizuoka University, emphasized in a recent NHK interview that the matcha boom must be leveraged to build a sustainable future for Japan’s tea industry. He advised moving beyond simple raw material exports toward product diversification and integrating traditional tea culture into regional tourism.

Protecting Heritage Through Geographical Indication

In response to these multi-faceted challenges, the Japanese government has begun implementing protective measures to safeguard its domestic brand. In July, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries officially registered "Japanese Tea" (Nihon-cha) under the Geographical Indication (GI) system.

The GI framework legally certifies and protects agricultural products whose unique qualities stem directly from a specific region’s natural environment and traditional production methods. By making authentic Japanese origin clearly identifiable to consumers worldwide, authorities hope to effectively differentiate authentic Japanese matcha from rising foreign alternatives, preserving the integrity and heritage of a centuries-old craft.

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