The Paraguayan Chamber of Commerce and Services (CNCSP) is introducing a new tool to gauge the future of the economy. Set to be released monthly starting in September, the Business Expectations Indicator (IEE) is designed to capture early trends in the Paraguayan economy and quantify business sentiment.
This indicator will focus on accurately assessing the outlook and perceptions of the Paraguayan private sector. The survey will be conducted among a diverse range of companies and associations affiliated with the Chamber of Commerce, spanning sectors such as trade, finance, transportation, real estate, services, and construction. This will allow the indicator to act as an early warning system, detecting monthly changes in economic trends, forecasting turning points in business cycles, and identifying potential risks and opportunities early on.
The indicator's credibility is bolstered by its development in collaboration with the International Labour Organization (ILO) and with technical support from MF Economía e Inversiones, a firm specializing in economic analysis. The survey will evaluate key economic metrics such as sales, employment, demand, inventory, and prices, looking at both the current situation and the outlook for the next three months. The results will be weighted according to each sector's contribution to Paraguay's GDP to ensure a more precise outcome.
A Foundation for Enhanced Competitiveness, Investment, and New Growth
Ricardo Dos Santos, President of the CNCSP, emphasized that the development of this indicator is a significant step toward boosting the competitiveness of the Paraguayan economy. "We feel the need to provide more information to help Paraguayan companies make better decisions and strengthen their competitiveness in domestic and international markets," he said. He added, "These efforts will make Paraguay more attractive to foreign investors and, most importantly, will make Paraguayans want to continue investing in their own country."
Karen Rosales of the ILO commented that the indicator will help build trust between the government and the private sector, stating, "This tool will provide the rigorous data and vision needed to look toward the future." Economist Manuel Ferreira explained that the indicator, by comparing business expectations with actual performance, will help in analyzing economic conditions from multiple angles when cross-referenced with official data from public institutions. "For example, after surveying companies about their hiring plans, we can track their actual hiring performance one or two months later to understand the gap between plans and reality," he noted, adding that this data can be cross-analyzed with official household survey results from the government.
A Leap Towards a Future Competitiveness Center
The development of this indicator is expected to serve as the cornerstone for the 'Center for Competitiveness and Productivity' that the Chamber of Commerce plans to establish. Paula Caro, General Manager of the Chamber, stated, "With this indicator, we will have a powerful tool to provide better services to our members, formulate more effective policies, and ultimately protect the interests of the commercial and services sector, which accounts for the largest share of the Paraguayan economy."
The newly introduced Business Expectations Indicator (IEE) is anticipated to act as a compass, diagnosing the present and charting the future of the Paraguayan economy. It will assist companies in their strategic decision-making and serve as a crucial resource for national economic policy formulation. This marks a significant turning point as the Paraguayan private sector and government work together to drive economic development.
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