SEOUL — South Korea’s climate strategy is facing heavy international scrutiny. Environmental groups and global carbon market analysts have called for a comprehensive review of the country’s plan to secure 37.5 million tons of greenhouse gas reductions internationally by 2030, warning against what they describe as "NDC washing."

During a side event at the 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, international climate experts argued that Seoul's heavy reliance on overseas carbon credits threatens to undermine domestic decarbonization efforts.

Overreliance on International Credits

Under its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), South Korea aims to cut overall emissions by 40% compared to 2018 levels. To meet this target, the nation plans to source approximately 13%—or 37.5 million tons—of its reductions from abroad. Critics point out that this overseas reduction target exceeds the individual mitigation goals assigned to key domestic sectors, including industry, transportation, and buildings.

Juliette de Grandpré, a senior climate policy advisor at the NewClimate Institute, stated that treating international offsets as an alternative to domestic emission cuts rather than a supplementary measure could stall the country’s transition away from fossil fuels.

Experts noted that South Korea’s international reduction target has more than doubled from 16.2 million tons in 2018 to 37.5 million tons in recent planning, while domestic targets for heavy industry were simultaneously scaled back. Inji Johnstone, co-founder of the Article 6 Observatory, cautioned that such practices risk giving rise to "NDC washing," a phenomenon parallel to greenwashing in voluntary carbon markets.

In response, South Korean government officials pushed back against the criticism, asserting that domestic reduction goals remain extremely ambitious and that international offsets do not replace local climate policies.

Feasibility and Verification Concerns

Questions have also been raised regarding the feasibility of hitting the 37.5-million-ton target. According to data analyzed by civil society organizations, the actual volume of viable international credits South Korea can realistically secure by 2030 may fall significantly short of government projections, potentially dropping to around 23.08 million tons once inflated estimates and transitional deductions are factored in.

Furthermore, controversies surrounding specific overseas projects—such as REDD+ forest conservation initiatives and clean cookstove programs—have highlighted potential overestimation issues in carbon credit issuance. While researchers have pointed to discrepancies between reported credits and actual emission reductions in certain projects, government representatives emphasized that future strategies will prioritize high-transparency sectors such as methane capture, biomass utilization, and electric mobility.

Environmental advocates have urged Seoul to reassess its international reduction goals and strengthen monitoring frameworks ahead of upcoming updates to the national carbon-neutrality master plan.

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