Microsoft (MS) co-founder Bill Gates has warned that the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) could trigger the most extreme turmoil in human history over the next 20 years. He projected that significant changes will sweep across society as AI surpasses human intellectual capabilities and even replaces physical labor.
According to the UK's The Observer on the 25th (local time), Gates evaluated the rise of AI in a recent interview as an event comparable to human evolution. "AI is an evolutionary event," he explained, comparing it to the fundamental shift from apes to humans.
Gates predicted that due to AI's advancement, humans will no longer be the most intelligent beings on Earth. While he believes mathematicians will experience a golden age aided by AI for about the next five years, he forecasts that within 20 years, AI will outperform humans in fields such as mathematics, biology, and engineering design.
He also admitted that his own programming skills have already been surpassed by AI. "Late last year, I realized that my coding skills, which I've dedicated myself to since I was 13, have essentially become obsolete," Gates explained, adding that the era in which humans could be the world's best programmers has passed.
He expressed concern over AI's impact on the labor market as well. Gates anticipates that AI will replace not only creative and office tasks but also human physical labor through humanoid robots. He warned that as technological advancement reduces the human role across most jobs, a sharp decline in employment could emerge as a major social issue.
In a podcast interview on tech media outlet The Verge, titled "Decoder," released on the 22nd, Gates similarly warned that while AI will ultimately usher in an era of abundance, considerable turmoil will occur along the way.
"What worries me most is the 20-year transition period where winners and losers emerge and a lot of turbulence happens," Gates said, noting that the changes brought by AI could spark one of the most tumultuous periods in human history.
In particular, he projected that once humanoid robots are deployed in various fields such as home construction, food production, and surgery, human labor will no longer be necessary to produce most goods and services.
Consequently, he suggested keeping certain professions as uniquely human domains. Even if AI outperforms humans, he explained, society could decide that human beings should continue to handle roles such as art, sports, cooking, and childcare.
Gates also emphasized the potential abundance that AI will bring. However, he pointed out that policy preparation is essential to cope with job losses and social upheaval in order to fully enjoy the benefits of technological advancement.
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