Santiago, Chile – Chile is making significant strides in its commitment to climate neutrality by 2050, particularly in the crucial transportation sector. As the first Latin American nation to pledge such ambitious climate goals under the Paris Agreement, Chile aims to slash its carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions to 95 million tonnes by the end of this decade – an 11% reduction from 2020 levels. With road transportation accounting for a substantial 40% of the country's final energy consumption and two-thirds of its petroleum use, decarbonizing this sector is paramount to achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
A recent in-depth analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) underscores Chile's strong policy foundation. The updated assessment of the global transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) models future vehicle sales and emissions based on current and proposed policies. The ICCT's findings reveal that if Chile successfully implements its existing and planned vehicle targets, the nation is on track to align its road transport emissions with a trajectory compatible with limiting global warming to below 2 °C – a key objective of the Paris Agreement.
The ICCT report examined three distinct scenarios for Chile's road transport emissions. The Baseline scenario reflects policies in place as of August 2024, including efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles (effective 2024) and light commercial vehicles (starting 2026). Furthermore, Chile's 2022 energy efficiency law mandates the adoption of heavy-duty vehicle efficiency standards by 2026, with implementation beginning in 2028.
The more ambitious Momentum scenario incorporates the non-binding targets outlined in Chile's 2021 National Electromobility Strategy. These targets include a bold 100% ZEV sales goal for new urban buses, light-duty, and light commercial vehicles by 2035, followed by heavy vehicles and intercity buses by 2045. This scenario also factors in Chile's commitments under various international agreements aimed at accelerating ZEV adoption across light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty vehicle segments. Notably, the ICCT's own Ambitious scenario, designed to fully align with Paris Agreement goals, mirrors the Momentum scenario for all vehicle categories in Chile, with the exception of two- and three-wheelers.
The analysis indicates that Chile's Momentum scenario places it firmly on a Paris Agreement-aligned pathway, envisioning a complete transition to 100% new ZEV sales across all vehicle categories by 2045 or even earlier. This suggests that Chile's immediate challenge lies not in setting more ambitious targets, but rather in effectively implementing and achieving its already defined goals and commitments.
Figure 2 from the ICCT report illustrates the projected well-to-wheel (WTW) CO2 emissions for Chile under the Baseline and Momentum scenarios. In 2020, road transport in Chile generated approximately 30 Mt of CO2 emissions. The Baseline scenario projects a concerning 30% increase in these emissions by 2030, followed by a plateau through 2050. In stark contrast, the Momentum scenario forecasts a slight initial increase until 2030, succeeded by a significant decline, resulting in 2050 emissions roughly two-thirds lower than the 2020 level.
While the projected emissions reductions in the Momentum scenario for road transport alone may not be sufficient to meet Chile's overarching NDC target of an 11% overall CO2e reduction by 2030, the potential to reduce 2050 emissions by over 30 Mt CO2 compared to the Baseline – nearly equivalent to the total road transport emissions in 2020 – represents a monumental achievement.
The ICCT emphasizes that Chile's proactive efforts in curbing road transport emissions are laying a robust foundation and serving as an inspiring example for other nations in Latin America. To ensure it remains on this promising trajectory, the report suggests several key steps.
Firstly, Chile should solidify its proposed policies and non-binding targets by finalizing and enforcing heavy-duty vehicle fuel efficiency standards across all vehicle segments. This includes establishing clear compliance mechanisms and penalties for non-adherence. Energy efficiency standards in transportation are recognized as crucial and cost-effective measures for significant emissions reductions.
Secondly, the report recommends that Chile formalize its current ZEV targets into legally binding and enforceable mandates. Implementing ZEV sales requirements, even if initiated with specific vehicle categories, would provide crucial regulatory and market certainty for automakers, consumers, and charging infrastructure providers. This, in turn, would stimulate essential investments in vehicle supply and charging infrastructure development. Furthermore, promoting interoperable charging infrastructure and ensuring equitable access will be vital for a seamless and inclusive ZEV transition throughout Chile.
The ICCT also highlights that complementary strategies can unlock further CO2 savings. These include initiatives to reduce overall road vehicle activity by promoting public transport, cycling, and walking; accelerating the transition to clean electricity and green hydrogen to power ZEVs; and encouraging the adoption of advanced efficiency technologies for any remaining internal combustion engine vehicles. Research indicates that combining these measures with an accelerated ZEV transition could potentially halve global cumulative CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2050 compared to a business-as-usual scenario.
By setting ambitious emissions reduction and vehicle electrification targets and taking concrete steps to achieve these commitments, Chile is solidifying its position as a clean transportation leader in the region. Its continued dedication could pave the way for widespread transport decarbonization across Latin America, contributing significantly to global climate goals.
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