Washington D.C. – U.S. private sector employment saw a significantly lower-than-expected increase in February, raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown amid the Trump administration's widespread tariff policies.
According to a report released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on March 5th, U.S. private sector employment rose by 77,000 jobs in February, a sharp decline from the 186,000 jobs added in January. This figure fell significantly short of the Dow Jones' expert consensus forecast of 148,000.
The substantial drop in job growth, coupled with recent weakening economic sentiment and sluggish consumer spending, suggests a possible deceleration in the U.S. economic growth trajectory. Bloomberg News described the ADP private sector employment data as "the lowest level since July of last year" and "another data point indicating a slowdown in the U.S. job market."
The Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies have also contributed to policy uncertainty, negatively impacting employment. The Conference Board's U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for February plummeted by 7 points from January, marking the largest drop since August 2021 and signaling a sharp deterioration in consumer sentiment. Additionally, January's personal consumption expenditures, released on February 28th, decreased by 0.2% month-over-month, the largest decline in four years since February 2021 during the pandemic.
Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, stated, "Policy uncertainty and declining consumer spending may have led to layoffs or slowed hiring last month. Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests that employers are hesitant to hire as they assess the future economic situation."
While the ADP private sector employment report, based on data collected by a private information firm, differs from the official government-compiled employment figures, the two statistics tend to move in similar directions.
As the Federal Reserve (Fed) has indicated it will not rush to cut interest rates due to the strong U.S. growth momentum, Wall Street is closely watching the U.S. Department of Labor's February non-farm payroll data, scheduled for release on March 7th.
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