Washington, D.C. – The World Bank on Thursday maintained its forecast of 2.7% global economic growth for both 2024 and 2026, unchanged from its June projections. However, the institution cautioned about the potential impact of a new U.S. administration and raised its growth forecast for 2024 by one-tenth to 2.7%.
Latin America and the Caribbean
For Uruguay, the World Bank anticipates a 3.2% economic growth in 2024, followed by a slightly slower pace of 2.6% for both 2025 and 2026. These projections align with the Bank's June estimates.
Despite the global economic uncertainties, Uruguay is expected to outperform the region in 2024 and grow at a similar rate to other Latin American and Caribbean countries in the following years.
Global Economic Outlook
The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report also left unchanged its projections for advanced economies, forecasting 1.7% growth in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. For 2024, the growth forecast was revised upward by two-tenths to 1.7%.
Meanwhile, the Bank increased its growth projections for emerging and developing economies by one-tenth for both last year and the next two years, estimating 4.1% growth in 2024 and 2025, and 4% in 2026.
The World Bank highlighted that developing economies, which account for 60% of global growth, are facing the most "dismal" long-term growth prospects since 2000. The report emphasized that their performance would be weaker than before the pandemic and insufficient to alleviate poverty and achieve broader development goals.
China and Mexico
China's growth forecast was revised upward by one-tenth for 2024 to 4.9% and by four-tenths for 2025 to 4.5%, while the forecast for 2026 remained unchanged at 4%.
In contrast, Mexico's growth forecast was reduced by six-tenths for both 2024 and 2025 to 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively, and by four-tenths for 2026 to 1.6%.
United States and Europe
The growth forecast for the United States was also revised upward by three-tenths for 2024 to 2.8%, by five-tenths for 2023 to 2.3%, and by two-tenths for 2026 to 2%.
The World Bank expressed caution about the potential impact of a new U.S. administration on global trade and economic growth. While acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding potential changes in U.S. trade and fiscal policies, the Bank warned that a 10 percentage point increase in tariffs imposed on U.S. trading partners could reduce global growth by 0.2 percentage points this year.
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