On July 26, a 'large-scale recall' vote in Taiwan, initiated by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to recall pro-China Kuomintang (KMT) legislators, failed. Foreign media outlets analyzed the result as 'Taiwanese voters rejecting the recall of a pro-China party.' Professor Hong Jing-fu of the Department of Political Science at National Cheng Kung University, a Taiwanese political expert, predicted that this result would have significant repercussions for Taiwan's future politics.
Professor Hong analyzed that the greatest common enemy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the KMT is currently the DPP, and the two sides are cooperating to some extent. He believes that the CCP will perceive the failure of this recall vote as evidence of successful cooperation with the KMT. In particular, he pointed out that this result will give CCP Chairman Xi Jinping, who aims for a third term in 2027, the confidence to intervene in next year's local elections in Taiwan.
Professor Hong predicted that the CCP would strengthen its influence over the 2026 elections by uniting pan-opposition forces, including the KMT and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), while also fomenting division and conflict within Taiwanese society. He stated, "The CCP will conclude that the KMT would have lost many seats without their intervention," and "the KMT will have no choice but to deepen its cooperation with the CCP."
Furthermore, Professor Hong analyzed that as the direction of the Legislative Yuan aligns with the CCP's, President Lai Ching-te's position will become even more precarious, and the DPP government's administration of state affairs will become increasingly difficult. He explained that the CCP will foster pro-China forces within Taiwan by providing greater benefits to local government leaders who support the 'One China' principle and the '1992 Consensus.'
It is highly likely that China will interpret the failure of this recall vote as 'Taiwanese voters rejecting the Lai Ching-te government and delivering a blow to the DPP.' Based on this interpretation, the CCP will strengthen its logic that supporting the '1992 Consensus' is the only way to prevent military tension in cross-strait relations.
Professor Hong predicted that Chairman Xi Jinping would use the results of this vote as a basis for confidence, viewing the 2026 local elections as a 'mid-term evaluation of President Lai Ching-te' and intensifying his intervention in the elections. His goal is to fully support anti-DPP forces to thwart President Lai Ching-te's re-election in 2028, limiting his presidency to a single term.
The outcome of this vote goes beyond deciding the fate of one or two legislators; it is expected to have a significant impact on the future direction of Taiwanese politics and cross-strait relations. Experts' analyses that the DPP's administration will face difficulties and the CCP's influence within Taiwan will expand foreshadow the instability of future Taiwanese politics.
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