While the impact of the former US President's tariff policies and the deepening trade war are shaking the world, Singapore is heading towards a general election on May 3rd, where voters' attention is expected to be focused on domestic issues rather than international affairs. In particular, the People's Action Party (PAP), led by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who is commanding his first general election since taking office in May 2023, is making all-out efforts to secure a strong base of support in this election.   

Singapore's political landscape is characterized by the overwhelming dominance of the PAP. It has been in power since 1959, marking an unprecedented continuous rule in the world. In this general election as well, Prime Minister Wong is putting the fourth-generation leadership group, the '4G' team, at the forefront, introducing new candidates daily to appeal to voters.   

Singapore maintains an open economic system and is particularly sensitive to changes in the international trade environment. However, experts analyze that voters will be more concerned about direct livelihood issues such as rising cost of living, employment problems, and housing issues, rather than the impact of the trade war. They predict that the trade war will not lead to a 'flight to safety' effect that would boost support for the PAP.   

Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior analyst at Solaris Strategies Singapore, analyzed that "Singapore elections tend to focus on local and grassroots issues that directly affect voters' lives, and the influence of international issues is relatively weak." He added, "While Singapore cannot be completely immune to the impact of the trade war, even if the ruling party actively uses it in their election campaign, it will be difficult to significantly sway voters."

Nydia Ngiow, managing director at BowerGroupAsia, predicted that "international issues will only emerge as election issues when Singaporeans feel a direct impact on their cost of living, job security, and the overall economy." Independent political commentator Felix Tan also analyzed that "voters who have experienced difficult times in the past tend to seek safety, but younger voters may not perceive tariff issues as a serious crisis."

Despite Singapore facing the severe threat of the COVID-19 pandemic during the 2020 general election, the opposition Workers' Party secured 10 out of 93 seats, its highest number ever. This shows that even though the PAP actively used the pandemic in its election campaign, it did not achieve the expected results. Ngiow analyzed that "the real-time impact of international tensions like the current trade war is not as immediately felt as the pandemic," and added, "Even in 2020, the PAP used this strategy but did not see the expected increase in support."

Teo Kay Key, a researcher at the Institute of Policy Studies' Social Lab, analyzed that "even if voters feel anxious about the future, they may not necessarily think they have to support the ruling party," adding, "They may instead want to hear diverse voices in Parliament."

Opinion polls conducted ahead of the election show that voters are most concerned about the cost of living. Bilveer Singh, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, analyzed that "dissatisfaction with the ruling party may increase due to the burden of the rising cost of living caused by the two Goods and Services Tax (GST) hikes in 2023 and 2024." He added, "The middle and lower income groups have been the hardest hit, and they constitute the majority of voters, making it difficult to use the 'flight to safety' argument by citing the trade war."

In response, the government led by Prime Minister Wong announced various measures to ease the burden of living costs through the S$143.1 billion (approximately US$109 billion) budget announced in February. These included essential item vouchers, public transport rebates, income tax refunds, and Singapore's 60th independence anniversary gifts. The distribution of such vouchers and subsidies has been ongoing since the pandemic.

However, Ngiow pointed out that these support measures are only short-term remedies, saying, "Voters expect the effects of long-term policies, but there is also a tendency to criticize the government's immediate responses," and analyzed that "in this dilemma, the government is always in a disadvantageous position."

In addition to the cost of living issue, Associate Professor Bilveer Singh analyzed that social integration could be a major issue for some voters, especially the Muslim community. He pointed out that "although the Muslim population is a minority, it accounts for 15-17% in some areas and is dissatisfied with the government's response to the Gaza issue and its delayed response to former Nominated Member of Parliament Calvin Cheng's remarks."

Former MP Calvin Cheng caused controversy by posting on social media that he would send pro-Palestinian activists to Gaza and sponsor them to 'not come back'. Prime Minister Wong and other senior Singaporean officials criticized Cheng about a month after his remarks.   

Experts predict that the PAP will win this election, but attention is focused on whether Prime Minister Wong can maintain a vote share of over 60%. In the 2020 general election, the PAP won 61.23% of the vote, slightly higher than the 60.14% in 2011, when dissatisfaction was high due to increased foreign influx, housing shortages, and transport system disruptions. In the 2015 general election, amidst the mourning for former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew and the atmosphere of Singapore's 50th independence anniversary, the PAP won 69.86% of the vote.   

Experts analyze that a new prime minister's first general election tends to see a lower vote share than previous elections. This trend was also observed in the power transitions from Lee Kuan Yew to Goh Chok Tong, and from Goh Chok Tong to Lee Hsien Loong.

In an interview with local media last Saturday, Prime Minister Wong stated that he is not aiming for a specific vote share and expects intense competition in every constituency. Analyst Mustafa said that "Prime Minister Wong's remarks are an expected response," adding, "Otherwise, he could face pressure regarding the target vote share before the election." He added that "a vote share of 60-65% could be considered a reasonable election result for Prime Minister Wong."

The PAP is expected to field at least 30 new candidates in this election, the largest number in recent history. Analyst Tan analyzed that "appointing new talent under the new prime minister is a reasonable decision for the PAP to avoid waiting five years for the retirement of some older MPs."

However, Associate Professor Bilveer Singh pointed out that this generational shift could cause dissatisfaction within the party. He analyzed, "There is no doubt that the PAP will be the ruling party and that Prime Minister Wong will be the prime minister on May 3rd, but what happens the day after? If they win with 58% of the vote, questions will be raised within the party about who is responsible for the decline in vote share. This is how one-party rule fails: division and retiring people who are still capable."

Workers' Party leader Pritam Singh has argued that the PAP should be prevented from securing a two-thirds majority in Parliament, which would give them the power to unilaterally amend the Constitution. If the Workers' Party wins one-third of the 97 seats in this election, it would be the largest number of candidates the party has ever fielded.

Potential candidates for the Workers' Party include senior lawyers, consultants, and a principal clinical psychologist from the Institute of Mental Health. Analyst Tan analyzed that "considering that new candidates are emerging in all constituencies and both the ruling and opposition parties have succeeded in recruiting excellent candidates, this election is expected to be highly competitive."   

Researcher Teo analyzed that as opposition parties are increasingly able to recruit more credible candidates, it will influence voters' perceptions. Ngiow noted that while diverse options have a positive impact on democracy, it remains to be seen whether opposition parties can overcome long-standing divisions and infighting. "As the possibility of a multi-party system increases, the influence of opposition parties may weaken. It remains to be seen whether they can cooperate effectively and establish themselves as a long-term alternative," she added.

Analyst Mustafa predicted that this election will be the most competitive and heated election yet, with numerous candidates and parties participating in the race. He assessed that "this is a positive sign for the development of democracy in Singapore."

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