SEOUL — South Korea's aviation sector continues to ride a wave of robust travel demand to Japan, with passenger volume outpacing flight capacity expansions and repeatedly setting historic records. Amid external variables such as recent seismic activity in Japan, industry watchers are turning their attention to Gimhae International Airport, questioning whether major carriers will establish regular scheduled flights between Busan and Tokyo's Haneda Airport as charter services prepare to launch.

According to aviation data compiled by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, passenger volume on Japanese routes operated by domestic airlines reached 24.55 million between January and October, marking a 20.5% increase compared to the same period last year. During the same timeframe, the growth rate of flight operations stood at 18.3%, indicating that passenger demand grew faster than overall supply.

These short-haul, highly lucrative routes have proven especially beneficial for local low-cost carriers (LCCs). A recent market analysis by iM Securities noted that heavy exposure to Japanese destinations is driving airline profitability. From January through October, Jeju Air experienced a 28.0% year-on-year surge in passengers traveling to Japan, while Jin Air recorded a 10.2% increase. Japan-bound passengers accounted for 57.1% and 62.6% of total international travelers for Jeju Air and Jin Air, respectively, representing the highest dependency among listed LCCs.

This momentum is clearly visible outside the capital region as well. Data from the Korea Airports Corporation shows that international travelers using Japan routes at Gimhae Airport hit 466,808 last month, making up 42.7% of the airport's total international traffic of 1,092,460. The gap between Japan-bound travelers and the combined total of all other Asian routes (excluding China) shrank to just roughly 14,000 passengers.

Propelled by this explosive traffic, Gimhae Airport surpassed one million international passengers in both September and October—traditionally off-peak months outside major school vacation periods. It marks the first time in the airport's history that monthly international passenger counts crossed the one-million threshold during these specific months.

The surge in regional travel has reignited discussions over a potential regular route linking Busan to Haneda Airport. While startup carrier Trinity Airlines is set to kick off irregular, nighttime charter flights on the route next month, national flag carrier Korean Air—which holds the official traffic rights for Haneda—has concentrated its Tokyo operations primarily out of Gimpo International Airport.

Because Haneda Airport sits much closer to downtown Tokyo, it is exempt from the standard Korea-Japan Open Skies agreement, requiring specific bilateral traffic rights for daytime scheduling. Under a 2008 aviation agreement, Seoul and Tokyo allocated four daily slots (two for each nation) split between Gimpo-Haneda and Busan-Haneda services to accommodate growing business travel. These rights are currently held by Korean Air and Asiana Airlines.

Although both airlines are legally permitted to utilize these slots from either Gimpo or Gimhae, Asiana currently operates no international flights out of Gimhae, and Korean Air channels its Haneda operations exclusively through Gimpo. Korean Air representatives noted that the airline services the Seoul-Tokyo corridor via Gimpo-Haneda while serving the Busan market with twice-daily flights between Gimhae and Narita. Local municipal officials in Busan acknowledge that while Korean Air possesses the operational capability to launch a Busan-Haneda route, the airline continues to prioritize Gimpo based on internal business strategy.

The Gimpo-Haneda route commands premium pricing due to its exceptional convenience for corporate travelers seeking quick access to both metropolitan centers. For instance, mid-December one-way tickets on the Gimpo-Haneda route list at roughly 466,000 won ($330), significantly higher than the 310,000 won charged for the longer Incheon-Narita route—illustrating how location accessibility directly dictates pricing.

With a comparable corporate traveler base in the Busan region demanding the convenience of Haneda Airport, industry observers expect that if upcoming charter trials by Trinity Airlines successfully demonstrate robust market viability, public and corporate pressure on legacy carriers to open regular daytime flights out of Busan will only intensify.

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