GENEVA — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on the 8th (local time) that the ongoing El Niño phenomenon will continue to strengthen ahead of its anticipated peak in December, potentially becoming one of the strongest episodes recorded since 1950.

In its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, the UN weather agency cautioned that the phenomenon will likely bring higher-than-average temperatures to vast regions of the globe while altering precipitation patterns, thereby escalating the risks of droughts and floods in different areas.

The WMO explained that these disaster risks are further amplified as the natural climate phenomenon combines with the effects of human-induced climate change.

El Niño—characterized by an abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific—triggers global shifts in wind, atmospheric pressure, and rainfall patterns. Typically occurring every two to seven years, El Niño events generally last between 9 and 12 months, alternating with its cooling counterpart, La Niña, with neutral phases in between.

The WMO stated that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to surge to unprecedented levels from October to December 2026. As the phenomenon intensifies, it is projected to exert profound impacts on economies, ecosystems, and local communities.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that the agency estimates a nearly 100% probability that the current El Niño will persist through February of next year. "This could be one of the most powerful cases since at least 1950," she stated.

Saulo pointed out that El Niño does not create new heat for the Earth, but rather releases heat previously stored in the oceans. "The ocean from which El Niño draws heat is the warmest we have ever measured, meaning there is significantly more heat available to be released."

The intensity of an El Niño is commonly measured using the "Niño 3.4 index," which tracks sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific region (5°S–5°N, 170°W–120°W) compared to a baseline period (1993–2009 average).

The Niño 3.4 temperature anomaly rose from +1.6°C in June to +2.5°C in August, with the seasonal average for October through December forecasted to reach approximately +3.7°C. Should this prediction materialize, it will mark the strongest El Niño on record. The previous record high for a seasonal average was +2.6°C, recorded from November 2015 to January 2016.

This event follows a previous El Niño cycle that occurred between 2023 and 2024. Driven by these climatic conditions, 2024 became the hottest year on record—surpassing the pre-industrial (1850–1900) average by 1.55°C—with 2023 ranking as the second warmest.

While El Niño typically peaks between November and February, the resulting temperature spikes usually manifest later. According to AFP, the current El Niño is already inflicting severe impacts in certain regions, noting that Central America is currently grappling with severe droughts that are killing livestock and crops.

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