Global warming has already reached 90 to 94 percent of the level expected when global temperatures rise 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a recent scientific study. The 1.5°C threshold serves as the critical climate defense line agreed upon under the Paris Agreement. António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, emphasized the urgent need for adaptation measures, stating, "We have already entered a new era of extreme climate events."

A joint research team, including Dr. Francis Zwiers from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium at the University of Victoria in Canada, published their findings on the 9th (local time) in the international journal Nature Climate Change, analyzing the extent of warming across 46 regions globally.

According to the research team, regional warming observed up to last year reached 90 to 94 percent of the projected warming levels if the global average temperature were to increase by 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era (1850–1900). Even when compared to a 2°C global temperature increase, regions have already reached 65 to 76 percent of that threshold.

The research team noted, "Greenhouse gases are the primary driver, showing that current warming is already indistinguishable from a world that has warmed by 1.5°C. Urgent adaptation measures are required across all regions."

The most severe warming was recorded in the Russian region near the Arctic, where temperatures rose by 3.3°C compared to pre-industrial times. Northeastern North America (a 2.6°C increase) and northwestern North America (a 2.4°C increase) followed. East Asia, including South Korea, was analyzed to have experienced a 1.5°C temperature rise.

This Year Also Sees a 1.47°C Rise... "El Niño on an Unprecedented Scale"

This year is also likely to be recorded as one of the hottest years in history. According to the State of the Global Climate report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on the occasion of the 31st UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP31) opening in Antalya, Turkey, the global average temperature from January to September this year was 1.47°C (±0.13°C) higher than pre-industrial levels.

While lower than the temperature rise of 1.55°C recorded in 2024—the hottest year on record—it remains close to the levels of 2023 (1.46°C) and 2025 (1.43°C). Consequently, the past four years are set to be recorded as the four hottest consecutive years in observational history.

Although a La Niña phase briefly cooled the Earth earlier in the year, subsequent development of El Niño offset this cooling effect. El Niño is a phenomenon characterized by abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, whereas La Niña is the opposite.

The WMO projected that El Niño will develop into one of the strongest levels on record next month. Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, warned, "This year's global climate and El Niño are on an unprecedented scale. The heat released by the oceans due to El Niño will continue to fuel high temperatures and extreme weather through next year."

UN Secretary-General António Guterres also stated in a press release, "We have already entered a new era of climate extremes. A mega El Niño is colliding with a planet already overheated by human-induced climate change," emphasizing the urgent need for financial support and protective measures for climate-vulnerable nations.

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