New Delhi, India – The 10th Raisina Dialogue, a prominent geopolitical conference hosted by India's Observer Research Foundation and the Ministry of External Affairs, concluded last week, leaving attendees with a sense of India's growing strategic importance in a rapidly changing world. The three-day event, held in New Delhi, showcased India's unique position as a vital player in a multipolar global order, attracting a diverse array of leaders and thinkers from Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and the Arab world.
A key takeaway from the dialogue was the prevailing sentiment that a potential second term for Donald Trump is viewed more as an opportunity than a threat by Indian policymakers. India's strategic autonomy, coupled with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's strong relationship with Trump, positions it favorably in a world where traditional alliances may be shifting. The "reverse Kissinger" theory, advocating for closer ties with Russia to counter China, resonated with India's own approach to maintaining relations with Moscow despite the Ukraine conflict. Notably, Indian opposition MP Shashi Tharoor even acknowledged the wisdom of Modi's stance on Russia.
However, concerns remain about Trump's potential China policy. While Chinese officials were notably absent from the dialogue, their influence loomed large. India, like its Quad partners, is keenly aware of the implications of any shift in U.S.-China relations. The lack of clarity from former U.S. spy chief Tulsi Gabbard on a potential Trump administration's strategy towards China left many attendees pondering the future of Indo-Pacific geopolitics.
Discussions also centered on the possibility of a U.S.-Russia or U.S.-China entente, prompting India to strengthen its own diplomatic channels with China. Prime Minister Modi's recent comments emphasizing cooperation between India and China, coupled with his upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping in Russia, suggest a strategic hedging approach by Delhi.
Despite differing worldviews, Europe and India are forging closer ties, with Europe increasingly viewing India's strategic autonomy as a model. India's vast market potential further solidifies its appeal as a crucial partner for a Europe navigating complex geopolitical challenges.
While the Raisina Dialogue highlighted India's convening power and its ability to navigate a world adrift, questions remain about its capacity to shape the global agenda. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar's critiques of the existing global order were noted, but concrete alternatives were less evident. Additionally, India's normative influence lags behind its economic and diplomatic prowess, as evidenced by the absence of initiatives comparable to China's Global Development Initiative.
In conclusion, India's ability to manage contradictions in a turbulent world is undeniable. However, its transition from a reactive to a proactive force in global transformation remains a work in progress.
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