South Korea's soybean production for 2024 is projected to reach 145,300 to 152,300 tons, marking a 2.7% to 7.6% increase compared to the previous year's 141,500 tons.

In its latest "November Soybean Outlook," the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) forecast that this year's soybean yield would be 196 to 205 kilograms per 10 ares, a 1.9% to 6.2% decrease from last year's yield of 209 kilograms. The institute attributed this decline to poor crop conditions caused by high temperatures during the grain-filling stage (late August to mid-October).

Field soybeans were particularly affected. A survey conducted by the KREI from October 9 to 17 among soybean sample farms revealed that 56.7% of field soybean farmers reported lower yields compared to the previous year.

In contrast, 50.1% of paddy soybean farmers reported good crop conditions, while 32.3% reported poor conditions. This is seen as an improvement over the previous year when growth was affected by concentrated heavy rains in the early stages.

Despite the expected decline in yield, the projected increase in production is attributed to a significant expansion in cultivated area. The KREI estimates that the soybean cultivation area for this year will reach 74,155 hectares, a 9.6% increase from the previous year's 67,671 hectares. This is larger than the 71,947 to 73,009 hectares projected in the "July Soybean Outlook." The KREI expects the strategic crop direct payment system to increase paddy soybean cultivation by over 30% compared to the previous year.

Soybean prices maintained a firm trend from the harvest season (November 2023 to January 2024) but weakened in October due to the government's release of reserved soybeans. According to the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (aT), the average wholesale price of soybeans during the short-term period (August-October) was 5,543 won per kilogram, representing a 1.1% increase compared to the previous harvest season and a 2.0% increase compared to the same period last year. Although the 2023 production increased by about 12,000 tons compared to the previous year, the market supply decreased by 2.0% year-on-year due to a 14,000-ton increase in government purchases.

The average wholesale price of soybeans from October 1 to 24 was 5,531 won per kilogram, down 0.2% from the September average. This is 0.7% higher than the average price for October of the previous year but 3.2% lower than the average for the same period.

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