(C) NPR
Despite two months of intensive military operations by the United States and Israel, the U.S. intelligence community assesses that Iran’s capability to develop nuclear weapons has not been significantly diminished, Reuters reported on May 5 (local time).
According to sources familiar with the matter, the timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon remains largely unchanged from the assessment made after "Operation Midnight Hammer" in June last year. At that time, pre-emptive strikes on facilities in Natanz and Fordow extended Iran's "breakout time"—the period needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb—from 3-6 months to approximately 9 months to a year.
A critical concern for international observers is the status of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. While several enrichment sites were damaged, roughly 440kg of 60% enriched uranium remains unaccounted for. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates that if further enriched, this stockpile could yield enough material for up to 10 nuclear bombs.
The report suggests that the primary goals of the current conflict, as stated by the Trump administration, have yet to be met regarding the neutralization of Iran’s nuclear program. Analysts point out that while Israel has targeted uranium processing sites, U.S. airstrikes have primarily focused on Iran’s political leadership, conventional military assets, and defense infrastructure.
"As far as we know, Iran still possesses all its nuclear material," said Eric Brewer, a former U.S. intelligence official specializing in Iran’s nuclear program. He noted that much of the material is likely stored in deep underground facilities designed to withstand even the most powerful American bunker-buster bombs.
Experts warn that unless the remaining stockpiles of highly enriched uranium are destroyed or removed, the fundamental threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions will persist, regardless of the damage dealt to its conventional military strength.
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