WASHINGTON — Foreign policy experts in Washington are raising alarms that the Donald Trump administration could exploit South Korea's push for wartime operational control (OPCON) as a strategic pretext to draw down US military presence on the Korean Peninsula.

The warning came during a recent podcast hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Victor Cha, the center's Korea Chair, told listeners that reports framing the OPCON transfer as a vehicle for a US troop exit carry significant weight. Despite legal safeguards like the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) which mandates a troop floor of 28,500, Cha emphasized that executive authorities provide alternative pathways for a determined commander-in-chief.

This sentiment was echoed by Randall Schriver, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security. Schriver concurred that leveraging the transfer to shrink US force footprints aligns closely with President Trump's core instincts. Meanwhile, former US Ambassador to Korea Mark Lippert noted that while Seoul may view the transition as a milestone for modernizing the alliance, Washington's leadership could treat it strictly as an exit strategy.

Tensions surrounding the readiness timeline were further highlighted by retired General Vincent Brooks, former commander of US Forces Korea. Brooks criticized recent remarks from South Korean defense officials claiming all necessary criteria for the transfer have been met, comparing such assertions to expecting graduation without passing core academic requirements. He also cautioned against dismantling the current combined command structure, arguing that wartime operations demand efficiency and victory over administrative sovereignty claims.

Beyond military posture, analysts note that shifting political dynamics in Washington—including a Democratic congressional sweep and cabinet-level scandals involving figures like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth—will complicate bilateral security and trade agendas. Experts warn that Seoul's ambitions regarding naval shipbuilding partnerships, nuclear-powered submarine cooperation, and fuel reprocessing rights will face steep opposition from a newly empowered, non-proliferation-focused US Congress.

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