Visit to Taiwan's Only South American Diplomatic Ally, Paraguay... US Transit Expected to Escalate US-China Tensions

 

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is scheduled to visit Paraguay, Taiwan's sole diplomatic ally in South America, in August. The high probability of President Lai transiting through the United States during this visit is expected to draw a sensitive reaction from China, which adheres to the 'One China' principle. Analysts suggest this could become a new source of tension in US-China relations.

Locally, on July 14th, Paraguayan President Santiago Peña officially announced at an investment meeting in Asunción, the capital, that "We are preparing to welcome President Lai with affection and anticipation within 30 days." Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu also attended the meeting, indicating that this visit will reaffirm the close relationship between the two countries.

President Lai's upcoming visit to Paraguay is likely to be his first major overseas trip since taking office in May. Taiwan and Paraguay have maintained diplomatic ties since 1957, making them long-standing allies. Notably, Paraguay is currently the only South American nation among the 12 countries worldwide that have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Strategic Importance of the US: Beyond Simple Transit, a Political Message 

It is customary for Taiwanese presidents to transit through the United States when visiting Central and South America due to geographical distance. President Lai also transited through Hawaii and Guam during his Pacific tour late last year. While seemingly a simple transit procedure, Reuters analyzed that such a transit through the US carries significant political meaning.

The United States is Taiwan's biggest international supporter and a major arms supplier. Therefore, a Taiwanese president's transit through the US serves as an opportunity for the US to reaffirm its support for Taiwan and to outwardly demonstrate the unofficial cooperative relationship between the two. This inevitably acts as indirect pressure on China. While acknowledging the 'One China' principle, the US maintains a policy of 'strategic ambiguity,' preserving unofficial relations with Taiwan and supporting its self-defense capabilities. A Taiwanese president's transit through the US is interpreted as a clear demonstration of US support for Taiwan, even within this strategic ambiguity.

China's 'One China' Principle and Taiwan's Diplomatic Isolation 

China regards Taiwan as an inseparable part of its territory and vigorously demands that the international community adhere to the 'One China' principle. Consequently, China exerts diplomatic and economic pressure on countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The majority of nations have chosen relations with economic powerhouse China, severing diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

In particular, a Taiwanese president's transit through the US is perceived as an act that directly contradicts China's 'One China' principle. China views this as an attempt by Taiwan to gain independence and has vehemently condemned such actions. In the past, transits by Taiwanese presidents through the US have led to strong retaliatory measures from China, including intensified military exercises and diplomatic protests.

If President Lai's transit through the US materializes this time, China is expected to react strongly once again. This could escalate military tensions in the Taiwan Strait or deepen diplomatic friction with the United States.

Complexity of US-China Relations: A Power Struggle Over the Taiwan Issue 

The Taiwan issue is one of the most sensitive and central matters in US-China relations. The United States continues its support for Taiwan under the pretext of backing Taiwan's democracy and assisting its self-defense capabilities, while China views this as interference in its internal affairs and a violation of its sovereignty.

In his inaugural address, President Lai Ching-te emphasized peaceful coexistence with China while also expressing a strong resolve to defend Taiwan's sovereignty. This demonstrates a duality of tension and dialogue in relations with China. This visit to Paraguay and potential transit through the US will likely serve as an opportunity for President Lai to declare his diplomatic stance domestically and internationally.

Consequently, President Lai Ching-te's visit to Paraguay and his anticipated transit through the US carry complex geopolitical implications beyond a mere diplomatic itinerary. It is an attempt to enhance Taiwan's international standing, simultaneously a diplomatic power struggle with China, which insists on the 'One China' principle, and an occasion for the United States to reaffirm its support for Taiwan in the region. The international community is closely watching the repercussions of this visit and changes in US-China relations.