Record-Breaking Profits Forecasted for Samsung and SK Hynix as Supply Shortages Intensify

(C) The Korea Economic Daily

SEOUL — The global semiconductor market is entering an unprecedented era of growth. Recent market data suggests that the "Memory Super Cycle" is not only arriving but will be significantly more aggressive than previously anticipated. Driven by the insatiable appetite for Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure, contract prices for essential memory components are projected to nearly double in the first quarter of 2026.

Price Projections Doubled
According to the latest report from market research firm TrendForce, the outlook for general-purpose DRAM contract prices has been revised sharply upward. Initially expected to rise by 60%, projections now suggest a staggering 95% increase compared to the previous quarter. Total DRAM price growth, including high-value High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), has also been adjusted from 50–55% to a robust 80–85%.

The NAND Flash market is following a similar trajectory. Forecasts for price hikes have jumped from roughly 35% to as high as 60%. This surge is primarily attributed to a widening imbalance between supply and demand, granting manufacturers unprecedented pricing power.

The "AI Displacement" Effect
The structural shift in the market is being driven by "Hyperscalers"—tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Meta—who are investing hundreds of billions of dollars into AI data centers. This has created a bottleneck in two ways:

Capacity Cannibalization: To meet the demand for HBM4 and high-performance server DRAM, manufacturers are diverting production lines away from traditional PC and smartphone memory.
Inventory Depletion: PC OEMs, despite having secured stable volumes previously, are seeing their inventories vanish as 4Q2025 shipments exceeded expectations. Consequently, PC DRAM prices are expected to break records with a 105–110% quarterly increase.

A $300 Trillion Won Milestone
Financial analysts are now painting a golden picture for South Korea’s semiconductor titans. Combined annual operating profits for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are projected to surpass the 300 trillion KRW (approx. $225 billion USD) mark for the first time.

Current estimates place Samsung’s annual operating profit at 162 trillion KRW, with SK Hynix following closely at 139 trillion KRW. This represents a monumental leap from 2025, where the two companies posted roughly 43 trillion and 47 trillion KRW, respectively.

Big Tech’s Unstoppable Spending
The optimism is backed by concrete capital expenditure (CAPEX) plans from Silicon Valley. Meta recently announced a 70% increase in its CAPEX for 2026, aiming for a range of $115–$135 billion to build out massive AI research facilities. As long as Big Tech continues its arms race for "Super Intelligence," the demand for high-capacity enterprise SSDs (eSSDs) and next-generation memory will likely keep supply chains strained for the foreseeable future.