(C) The Hindu

WASHINGTON D.C. / BEIJING – The Taiwanese government has expressed strong satisfaction with the conclusion of its recent tariff negotiations with the United States, securing "Most-Favored-Nation" (MFN) status. However, analysts are already debating the feasibility and exact figures of the proposed $500 billion investment package, which could become a diplomatic friction point in the implementation phase.

A Strategic Victory for Semiconductor Ties
Cheng Li-chiun, Deputy Prime Minister of Taiwan’s Executive Yuan, announced at a press conference on January 15 that Taiwan has become the first global partner to secure a comprehensive MFN exemption from potential Section 232 national security tariffs.

"This agreement underscores the United States' recognition of Taiwan as an indispensable strategic partner in the semiconductor industry," Cheng stated. The deal includes a reduction of reciprocal tariff rates to 15%, matching recent agreements made by Japan and South Korea.

The $500 Billion Question: Direct Investment vs. Credit Guarantees
The crux of the agreement involves a massive financial commitment aimed at bolstering the U.S. tech ecosystem:

Direct Investment: $250 billion from Taiwanese firms (including TSMC) to expand production in cutting-edge semiconductors, AI, and energy.
Credit Guarantees: A further $250 billion provided by the Taiwanese government to facilitate additional private-sector investment.
While some U.S. analysts, such as Riley Walters of the Hudson Institute, view this as a staggering $500 billion total commitment—surpassing South Korea’s $350 billion and rivaling Japan’s $550 billion—domestic experts in Taiwan remain cautious.

Divergent Interpretations
Lien Hsien-ming, President of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, clarified that the two $250 billion figures are not necessarily additive. "The government’s credit guarantees and corporate direct investments are not mutually exclusive," Lien noted, suggesting the final capital flow might not reach the headline $500 billion mark.

Lien further highlighted that the $250 billion in direct investment includes the $165 billion already pledged by TSMC, meaning the "new" commitment is approximately $85 billion. He emphasized that the specific companies and timelines for this additional investment remain unspecified.

Future Outlook
Despite the internal debate over figures, the agreement is seen as a major step in deepening the U.S.-Taiwan AI Strategic Partnership. While concerns persist regarding "industrial hollowing out" in Taiwan, officials maintain that local production capacities will remain robust. The focus now shifts to how the U.S. administration will respond if the actual investment flow diverges from their high-stakes expectations.