LONDON, [Date based on current time/search data, e.g., October 6, 2025]—A recent analysis by the international non-profit group Climate Action Tracker (CAT) reveals that of the 18 countries whose 2035 National Determined Contributions (NDCs) were assessed, only the United Kingdom and Norway have set targets that are consistent with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius based solely on their domestic potential. However, even these leading pledges are deemed insufficient when considering historical responsibility and economic capacity.

The Paris Agreement mandates that countries submit their 2035 NDCs to the UNFCCC Secretariat, with a deadline set for early next month. As of late last month, 56 countries, including the US and the UK, had submitted their 2035 targets, but 137, including South Korea, have yet to do so. The CAT analysis focuses on the 18 submitted targets among the 61 countries it tracks.

Two-Pronged Assessment for Climate Targets 

The CAT evaluation applies two core criteria to assess the ambition of the 2035 NDCs:

Modelled Domestic Pathways (MDP): This criterion assesses a country's emission reduction potential based on its technological and economic capabilities alone, excluding factors like historical emissions. It represents what is technically and economically feasible domestically to align with the 1.5°C goal.
Fair Share (FS): This benchmark evaluates whether a country's target is equitable, factoring in its historical responsibility for emissions, economic strength, and capacity to provide international climate finance, consistent with the Paris Agreement's principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.'
 

UK and Norway Meet Domestic Threshold, Miss Fair Share 

The UK, which submitted its target in January, pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 81% below 1990 levels by 2035, aiming for an emission level of 153 million tonnes. CAT calculated the UK's 1.5°C-compatible MDP at 167 million tonnes, confirming the UK's target is compatible with its domestic potential.

Norway's pledge promises a 70–75% reduction from 1990 levels by 2035, resulting in 14–17 million tonnes of emissions. This also meets its MDP threshold, which CAT estimates at 21 million tonnes.

However, both nations faltered on the more stringent Fair Share principle. CAT criticized the UK, noting that its promised £11.6 billion (approximately 22 trillion KRW) in climate finance for developing nations between 2021 and 2026 is insufficient to meet its Fair Share obligations. CAT urged the UK to commit to more ambitious climate finance goals beyond 2026.

Norway’s domestic target was found to be even more significantly short of its Fair Share, which would require a negative 25 million tonnes of domestic emissions. CAT concluded that to meet this benchmark, Norway must go beyond domestic cuts and substantially support emissions reduction in developing countries through climate finance.

Major Economies Fall Short 

The analysis found that the NDCs of other major economies, including the United States, Japan, and Brazil, failed both the MDP and Fair Share criteria.

The US, under the Biden administration, set a target last year to cut net emissions by 61–66% below 2005 levels by 2035. CAT calculated this equates to 2.9–3.4 billion tonnes of emissions, which is deemed insufficient for a 1.5°C domestic pathway. CAT stated the US would need to reduce emissions to 2.2 billion tonnes by 2035 to align with the MDP benchmark.

Japan aims for a 60% reduction in GHG emissions by 2035 compared to 2013 levels. CAT's assessment indicated this is not nearly enough, stating that a reduction of at least 81% from 2013 levels is necessary for Japan to be 1.5°C-compatible.

Brazil, set to host COP30, submitted a target to reduce emissions by 59–67% below 2005 levels. However, CAT noted that evaluating this target was difficult due to a lack of government-published data on the expected contribution of the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector—which includes the Amazon rainforest. The Amazon can act as a massive carbon sink (up to 630 million tonnes) but could become a net emitter (80 million tonnes) if deforestation continues. CAT concluded that in all scenarios, both including and excluding the LULUCF sector, Brazil's 2035 goal is not consistent with the 1.5°C limit.

The overall findings underscore a critical gap between global climate ambition and the collective action required by the Paris Agreement to avert the worst consequences of climate change. A failure to substantially strengthen NDCs, particularly those of historically high-emitting and economically capable nations, risks overshooting the 1.5°C threshold.

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