Asunción, Paraguay – Paraguay is facing a persistent surge in the U.S. dollar, posing economic challenges despite the Central Bank of Paraguay's (BCP) efforts to stabilize the exchange rate. The BCP has sold $216 million to financial institutions, yet the dollar's upward trajectory remains unbroken. Experts are now forecasting that the dollar could reach 8,000 guaraníes by the first half of 2025 if this trend continues.

Emil Mendoza of the Association of Exchange Houses (Asociación de Casas de Cambio) attributes the dollar's strength to international conflicts and depressed soybean prices, which are significantly impacting dollar-related commodities.

"Our market is suffering from international wars, which are causing the dollar to rise," Mendoza stated in a radio interview. He further explained, "Our soybean production has fallen short of expectations, and international soybean prices are unfavorable due to international tensions between the United States, the European Union, China, and India."

Miguel Mora, a board member of the BCP, dismissed allegations of dollar outflows to Bolivia, asserting that "minimal trade with Bolivia is managed through official channels." He emphasized that, unlike with Argentina, "we do not have significant trade with Bolivia that would be a decisive factor in the exchange rate market."

Mora also argued that informal cash transactions, which constitute only 5% of total transactions, cannot exert significant pressure on the dollar. He concurred with Mendoza that declining commodity (soybean, corn) prices and global trade uncertainties are the primary causes of the dollar's rise, adding that external factors such as former President Donald Trump's tariff policies also contribute.

Mora anticipates that export revenues may alleviate pressure by the end of the year, but he predicts that the dollar's upward trend will persist for the time being.

[ⓒ Global Economic Times. 무단전재-재배포 금지]