The looming specter of Donald Trump's return to the US presidency casts a long shadow over the international landscape, with the relationship between the United States and Brazil facing a particularly uncertain future. Following Jair Bolsonaro's tenure, marked by authoritarian tendencies and persistent assaults on democratic institutions, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's dramatic 2022 electoral victory offered a beacon of hope for the restoration of Brazilian democracy.

Despite the personal rapport between Trump and Bolsonaro, Brazil did not ascend to a central position in Washington's foreign policy priorities, even with Bolsonaro's fervent courtship. In contrast, Lula's new term commenced with a clear affirmation of democratic values and mutual support for democratic institutions during a White House meeting with then-President Joe Biden. This was followed by a significant visit to China, where Lula led a substantial delegation to bolster economic and development cooperation, echoing the universalist foreign policy approach that proved effective during his previous two presidential terms. However, this diplomatic strategy now confronts formidable challenges in a global order increasingly defined by intensifying great power competition and the resurgence of interstate conflict.

As the United States and Brazil commemorate 200 years of diplomatic relations in 2025, an unavoidable interaction between Trump and Lula looms. These two largest democracies and economies in the Americas hold starkly divergent views on geopolitical matters and a range of other issues. Yet, pragmatic necessities may compel both nations to maintain a functional, albeit potentially strained, relationship.

Despite the pronounced ideological differences between the two leaders and their contrasting ambitions on the world stage, President Lula has expressed a commitment to sustaining amicable ties with the US, Brazil's long-standing ally and second-largest trading partner, based on mutual respect. However, the expansion of BRICS and China's growing influence in Latin America present novel challenges to the traditional dynamics of this bilateral relationship.

This increasingly complex international environment necessitates more proactive engagement from both governments and civil society actors. Numerous tasks lie ahead in fostering constructive interaction, and this analysis aims to contribute to that endeavor.

Economic and Trade Ties: Navigating Protectionist Waves for Cooperation

While the United States is no longer Brazil's primary economic partner, it remains a significant player in the Brazilian economy, with US exports to Brazil reaching $40 billion in 2024. However, the potential imposition of tariffs on Brazilian steel and ethanol products, as recently threatened by President Trump, could severely strain bilateral economic relations.

Such protectionist measures by the US could lead to increased domestic prices; however, their efficacy in prompting a policy reversal from the new administration remains uncertain. An escalation of this situation might paradoxically lead the US to reconsider its stance, given China's expanding economic footprint within Brazil. Indeed, Brazil and China have recently inked dozens of economic and development cooperation agreements, including plans for a new transcontinental trade route across South America to facilitate direct shipment of Brazilian goods to China via the Pacific.

This trend, while presenting new challenges, could also serve as a catalyst for constructive dialogue aimed at forging a new US-Brazil economic partnership. Similarly, the Trump administration has voiced concerns regarding the recent expansion of BRICS. Considering Brazil's pivotal role within the bloc and its enduring economic ties with the US, President Lula must play a crucial role in consistently emphasizing that BRICS does not seek to supplant the US in the global economic order.

Despite China's growing prominence within BRICS, Lula's position still allows for a persuasive argument that BRICS need not be viewed as an anti-Western coalition and that the pursuit of enhanced local currency transactions among member states is not an attempt to displace the dollar's reserve currency status. Brazil should articulate this stance even more clearly to US authorities, particularly before the Trump administration potentially moves forward with new 100% tariffs on imports from BRICS nations.

Beyond China, the recently concluded Mercosur-European Union (EU) agreement could unlock new business opportunities for Brazil. While the final signatures from EU member states remain pending, facing uncertainty particularly due to French opposition, this new development is a factor that could garner the attention of the Trump administration regarding its influence within Brazil. Given that Brazil and the US compete in various export sectors, including agriculture, ethanol, and steel, both nations could mutually benefit from exploring new avenues of cooperation, particularly in the green energy sector.

Environment, Energy, and Sustainable Development: Finding Common Ground Amidst Divergence

Brazil stands as a global leader on environmental issues, and President Lula's return has generated significant international expectations in this arena. This November, Brazil is slated to host the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30).

In the lead-up to this crucial meeting, President Lula has urged the international community to fulfill its commitments, a stance that contrasts sharply with the recent moves by the Trump administration to roll back environmental efforts in the US and internationally. The ongoing debate within Brazil regarding the exploration of oil and gas reserves in the Amazon rainforest could negatively impact Brazil's image at the upcoming COP.

However, this apparent contradiction could open new avenues for bilateral cooperation by demonstrating Brazil's openness to a gradual transition away from fossil fuels. This could serve as a basis for discussions on energy transition with US authorities. Green energy need not be perceived as a threat to existing industries; indeed, it can create new economic opportunities for companies, such as US automakers already offering battery-powered models.

Brazil and the US hold differing perspectives on regulatory frameworks and the actors involved. While deregulation is currently being pursued in the US, Brazil is in the process of rebuilding regulatory structures dismantled under the Bolsonaro administration. These divergent views can be mitigated through the active involvement of private and non-profit organizations, which can encourage a shift in US policy direction. Ultimately, with the growth of the green energy sector in Brazil driven by large Chinese energy and automotive manufacturing firms, the US will likely have an interest in participating in this trend.

Market forces alone will not suffice to address the critical challenge of climate change. Therefore, future discussions and actions regarding economic activities in the Amazon, such as mining, must include Indigenous peoples and local communities. Broader collaboration between Indigenous activists in Brazil and the US (and beyond) should be encouraged and supported.

Immigration and Border Issues: The Imperative of a Humanitarian Approach and Regional Cooperation

The US-Mexico border, particularly the large number of migrants crossing annually, is a central tenet of US foreign policy in Latin America. While Brazil is not a primary country of origin for these flows, there has been an increase in the number of Brazilians arriving in the US without proper documentation via the southern border (and beyond). This has made recent arrests and deportations of Latin American migrants by the Trump administration another sensitive issue in US-Brazil relations.

Indeed, while President Trump recently announced potential new tariffs on key Brazilian exports, a primary diplomatic strain during his initial weeks in office involved the deportation of handcuffed Brazilian citizens on US flights. This led to the establishment of working groups to improve information sharing and the operation of return flights to ensure the safe and respectful return of undocumented Brazilians in the US.

However, given that these US actions are linked to the goal of controlling drug trafficking, a complex issue that also affects Brazil, a more effective response will stem from a regional approach involving governmental and non-governmental actors across the Americas. Dialogue can be fostered at the level of regional organizations such as the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) to promote regional measures aimed at preventing irregular migration flows, based on adherence to human rights treaties.

The Digital Challenge to Democracy: Seeking Solutions Through International Cooperation
During President Trump's first term, Jair Bolsonaro occupied the Brazilian presidency, and both leaders pursued similar anti-democratic political agendas, including the dissemination of disinformation on new digital media platforms. The regulation of these media outlets has been a key concern for Brazilian authorities, positioning Brazil as a global reference point for nations seeking to address the issue of fake news and safeguard democratic values. Despite ongoing public criticism of Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes' measures to regulate digital platform operations within Brazil, and legal challenges in Florida, diplomatic engagement between the two nations must encompass this sensitive yet unavoidable topic.

International discussions on these issues are underway, as evidenced by recent conferences in Paris, indicating a growing recognition of the need for international cooperation. Therefore, both nations could mutually benefit from frank conversations involving media outlets and civil society organizations. While clear limitations exist regarding how far each side is willing to go to find common ground, only constructive engagement can prevent an escalation of the situation.

Global Governance: Upholding Multilateralism and the Importance of Balanced Diplomacy
In an era defined by intensifying great power competition between the US and China, developing nations face new challenges in maintaining amicable relations with both competing sides. This is particularly true for Brazil, one of the largest democracies in the Global South and a nation still working to consolidate its democratic institutions.

Moreover, Brazil is viewed as a reference point for other developing nations grappling with similar challenges. Indeed, how Brazilian leaders navigate these challenges could present opportunities or create new problems for similar countries in Latin America and beyond.

While the US was historically the primary trade partner and investor for most nations worldwide, today, China is the leading trade partner for over 120 economies and the most dynamic hub of the global economy. Navigating the geopolitical interests of both China and the US is a complex undertaking for any nation. Furthermore, multilateral institutions face their most significant challenges since the end of World War II, with the apparent formation of regional economic and geopolitical blocs.

In this context, Brazil's steadfast commitment to a universalist foreign policy approach will be crucial. While not without its imperfections, multilateralism has been instrumental in bringing critical issues for developing nations to the international agenda. Throughout its transition from the Cold War and towards democracy, Brazil has played a leading role in articulating the needs and aspirations of poorer and developing nations worldwide. These efforts are currently evident in its leadership roles in both the G20, which held its annual meeting in November 2024, and its current presidency of BRICS.

Given the Trump administration's apparent lower prioritization of global institutions compared to previous administrations, Brazil could assume an even more significant role within these bodies if it successfully navigates a balanced approach between economic and geopolitical blocs.

Dialogue with US authorities must persist, focusing particularly on persuading them that increasing isolationism, while potentially appearing to address immediate domestic demands, is not an adequate response to the weakening of competitiveness vis-à-vis rival nations. As with the other areas mentioned, this dialogue should include representatives from the private sector and civil society.

Prospects, Necessity, and Potential for Deepening Bilateral Ties

President Trump's return to the White House portends a more isolationist and confrontational foreign policy. US-Latin American relations appear poised for a potential regression to an era where the region was viewed as a secure sphere of influence for burgeoning US global ambitions, potentially involving the use of force if deemed necessary. Given its economic and territorial size, population, and growing regional and global diplomatic influence, Brazil will be central to any potential US actions in the region.

Indeed, while Latin America is arguably more fractured today than it was a decade ago, Brazil could play a crucial role in fostering regional cooperation, particularly in the aforementioned areas, especially if its leaders can coordinate efforts with other significant nations on the continent. Collaborative action would be further strengthened by the inclusion of civil society actors in key initiatives related to human rights, the environment, and the defense of democratic values and institutions.

While some of these efforts may not appear conducive to constructive US-Brazil cooperation, it is imperative to identify key areas of potential alignment beyond rhetoric. For instance, both President Lula and President Trump have signaled support for a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. While not a central pillar of bilateral relations, this could provide an opening for dialogue.

Similarly, while Brazil is unlikely to abandon its close economic ties with China, this very reality could inspire US leaders to explore more creative responses, lest the Brazil-China relationship deepen further. Moreover, regional issues, such as the situation in Venezuela, as was the case during the Bush administration in the early 2000s, could serve as a catalyst for the US to view Brazil as a more stable nation and even a functional partner in addressing persistent challenges in Latin America.

Despite the disruptive tendencies exhibited by President Trump during his previous tenure, the US-Brazil relationship benefits from a long history of dialogue and various forms of cooperation. Many challenges lie ahead. However, rather than viewing these challenges as reasons for disengagement, they should be seen as impetus to expand existing lines of communication beyond official diplomatic channels to include academics, journalists, private sector actors, and broader civil society. By doing so, the two largest nations and democracies in the Western Hemisphere can mutually benefit from the immense potential and necessity of collaboration.