After a poor performance last year, Alaska's commercial salmon harvest is expected to make a strong recovery this year, according to state biologists. A projected boom in pink salmon is anticipated to push the total harvest to more than double last year's figures.

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) released its annual statewide harvest forecast report this week, projecting a total salmon harvest of 214.6 million fish for 2025. This figure is higher than the average of 175 million fish from 2000 to 2023 and significantly greater than the 103.5 million fish commercially harvested last year. However, it falls well short of the record harvest of 280 million fish in 2013. Forrest Bowers, director of ADF&G's Commercial Fisheries Division, stated that if the harvest meets expectations, it would be the tenth largest on record.

 
Pink Salmon Boom Drives Overall Harvest Rebound

The key to this projected harvest rebound is the significantly improved outlook for pink salmon, also known as humpback salmon. This year's pink salmon harvest is expected to be 98.2 million fish higher than last year. Pink salmon are the most abundant and least expensive of Alaska's five salmon species. However, last year's pink salmon harvest of approximately 40 million fish was considered "terrible," even when accounting for the weak pattern in even-numbered years.

Pink salmon have the shortest life cycle of Alaska's salmon species, lasting two years, and tend to show larger harvests in odd-numbered years. This odd-year/even-year contrast has been particularly pronounced over the last decade. This can be seen in past data, with the year-to-year variability clearly visible in the statewide pink salmon trend graph since 1970, included in ADF&G's 2025 harvest forecast report.

 
Other Species Increase, King Salmon Decline Continues

Beyond pink salmon, catches of other species are also projected to increase. Sockeye salmon are expected to see an increase of 10.8 million fish, coho salmon by 544,000 fish, and chum salmon by 876,000 fish.

However, king salmon (Chinook salmon) have shown poor harvests in recent years, and this trend is expected to continue with a further decline this year. Last year, Alaskan fishermen harvested 244,000 king salmon, but this year's forecast is only 144,000 fish. Bowers stated that the poor harvests have necessitated the state to "severely restrict" king salmon fishing in recent years. This year's projected king salmon harvest also reflects obligations under the U.S.-Canada Pacific Salmon Treaty. The treaty aims to ensure enough salmon return to spawning grounds to provide sufficient fish for both countries' fishers, but this remains a challenging goal to achieve.

Currently, opportunities to catch king salmon in Alaska are limited. Bowers said that "the only place that there's a directed king salmon fishery this year is in Southeast Alaska." Other king salmon harvests occur only as bycatch when targeting other species.

 
Salmon Size Expected to Recover, Leading to Higher Total Weight

Excluding king salmon, this year's commercial harvest is expected to improve in another aspect compared to last year: salmon size. For decades, the size of Pacific salmon has been shrinking, attributed to factors such as climate change, ocean food competition, and other conditions. This trend was evident last year as well. The average size of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon, a major source of Alaskan sockeye, was a record low of just 4.53 pounds (approximately 2.05 kg).

Last year, the commercial harvest of all salmon species in Alaska totaled approximately 450 million pounds (about 204,000 metric tons) by weight, marking the third lowest on record. This was influenced by the mixed age classes of Bristol Bay sockeye, with approximately 80% of returning fish last year being younger individuals who had spent only two years in the ocean.

However, salmon returning to Bristol Bay this year are expected to be older. Bowers noted that 63% of the returning fish will have spent three years at sea. He explained, "A 3-ocean fish is going to be bigger than a 2-ocean fish because they put most of their growth on in the ocean."

Beyond the well-studied Bristol Bay harvest, most other salmon harvests involve the return of single age classes or have much less information regarding age class distribution. This makes it difficult to predict fish sizes in areas other than Bristol Bay, Bowers added.

 
Harvest Forecast Uncertainty

ADF&G's harvest forecasts are calculated by comparing the size of the projected harvest with the required level of salmon returning to spawning grounds (known as 'escapement'). After subtracting the escapement needs from the projected harvest size, the remainder is considered the 'harvestable surplus,' which ADF&G uses as its forecast.

However, whether fishers will actually harvest this surplus remains uncertain. ADF&G's annual statewide forecast report points out that market conditions influence fishing effort. Therefore, the calculated figures "may not represent the actual harvest." This implies that the harvest forecasts may differ from reality, and the ultimate harvest can vary depending on factors such as fishing effort and market conditions.