HANOI – Vietnam's trade surplus with the United States surged to over $110 billion in the first 11 months of 2024, according to the latest US statistics. This represents a nearly 18% increase compared to the same period last year, solidifying Vietnam's position as the fourth-largest trade surplus nation with the US, trailing only China, the EU, and Mexico.

This substantial trade imbalance has raised concerns among US policymakers, particularly with the threat of potential tariffs under the incoming administration. The sharp depreciation of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar has further intensified these concerns, prompting scrutiny of possible currency manipulation.

The weakened dong, while largely mirroring global currency trends, provides a competitive advantage to Vietnamese exporters. Major US multinationals operating in Vietnam, including Apple, Google, Nike, and Intel, contribute significantly to these exports. 1    

Analysts warn that if the US perceives Vietnam's currency policies as deliberate attempts to gain an unfair trade advantage, it could trigger renewed accusations of currency manipulation and potential retaliatory measures.

Vietnam's central bank has acknowledged the currency fluctuations and reiterated its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to mitigate potential negative impacts. However, the bank also stated its intention to closely monitor the policies of the incoming administration and adjust its strategies accordingly.

This development underscores the delicate balancing act faced by Vietnam as it navigates the complexities of its trade relationship with the US while striving to maintain a competitive edge in the global market.