Philippine politics has long resembled a family business. Recently, however, it has escalated beyond mere family affairs into a fierce family feud, marked by assassination threats and impeachment proceedings. This conflict is not just an entertaining spectacle; it is drawing international attention because of its profound potential impact on the relationship between the Philippines and the United States, and, by extension, on America's alliance strategy to counter China's aggressive military expansion in the Pacific.

The Clash of Two Political Dynasties: Marcos vs. Duterte 

One side of this conflict involves the current president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (Bongbong). He is the son and namesake of the dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who ruled the Philippines from 1965 to 1986. Having shed his father's authoritarian legacy, Marcos Jr. has pursued a staunchly pro-American foreign policy since his election in 2022. Under his leadership, the U.S. and the Philippines have shared classified intelligence, enhanced military interoperability, and the U.S. has pledged to defend the Philippines in the South China Sea territorial disputes. This is seen as a key strategy for the U.S. to counter China's growing influence in the region.

On the opposing side is Marcos Jr.'s vice president and political rival, Sara Duterte-Carpio. She is the daughter of Rodrigo Duterte, Marcos Jr.'s predecessor. Rodrigo Duterte is currently incarcerated in The Hague, awaiting trial on charges of crimes against humanity, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and rape, which occurred during his "war on drugs." During his six-year term, Duterte significantly shifted the Philippines' foreign policy from the U.S. towards China, famously calling then-President Barack Obama a "son of a bitch" and proclaiming "I love Xi Jinping," demonstrating his pro-China stance.

A Broken Alliance and Impeachment Crisis 

Duterte-Carpio is aiming for the 2028 presidential election. In the Philippine political system, the president and vice president are elected separately, and often, rivals from different camps win these positions. In the 2022 election, the Marcos and Duterte families collaborated, with Marcos Jr. and Duterte-Carpio running as a tandem. This was interpreted as a strategy for Marcos Jr. to protect Rodrigo Duterte from prosecution for his strongman rule, and to pave the way for Duterte-Carpio's bid for the next presidency.

However, this unstable alliance quickly fractured. Last February, the Philippine House of Representatives, led by Marcos Jr.'s cousin, House Speaker Martin Romualdez, initiated impeachment proceedings against Duterte-Carpio for alleged corruption, misuse of public funds, and assassination threats against Marcos Jr., his wife, and Romualdez. Duterte-Carpio had stated in November of last year that she was an assassination target and had hired hitmen for revenge if she were harmed.

She declared, "It's not a joke. It's not a joke. I have already given the order, 'If I die, do not stop until you kill them.'" She has also accused Marcos Jr. of violating Philippine law and sovereignty by sending her father to the International Criminal Court (ICC), claiming her 80-year-old father is suffering from "oppression and persecution."

A Delicate Political Landscape and an Unpredictable Future 

To remove a vice president, a two-thirds vote from the 24-member Philippine Senate is required. Marcos Jr. might have believed he had secured the necessary votes for impeachment, but the mid-term Senate elections held last May brought surprising results. Marcos Jr.'s allies secured only half of the 12 contested seats, a significant blow for an incumbent president barely halfway through his term.

A peculiar twist in this family drama is that Marcos Jr.'s sister, Imee Marcos, switched sides to the Duterte camp and secured a Senate seat. Imee Marcos was a key supporter of Duterte-Carpio. It is also known that Imee Marcos harbors presidential ambitions herself and considers herself the rightful heir to the Marcos family name and legacy.

In an even more bizarre "only-in-the-Philippines" scenario, the incarcerated Rodrigo Duterte was re-elected as Mayor of Davao last May. The Davao mayoralty is a position he held for over 20 years and served as a stepping stone to the presidency. It is unclear if he can take his oath of office given his incarceration, but there's no need to worry. His youngest son, Sebastian "Baste" Duterte, was elected Vice Mayor and is filling the role.

It might seem strange for an individual indicted for crimes against humanity to be elected to public office. However, in the Philippines, fallen officials often make political comebacks through elections. Former President Joseph Estrada was impeached and convicted of corruption but later successfully won the mayoralty of Manila. Additionally, dismissed army colonel Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan, who led several bloody coup attempts in the 1980s, later achieved political success as a senator.

No one can predict how this dramatic saga will end. Duterte-Carpio is an early front-runner in the 2028 presidential polls. It is uncertain whether her impeachment attempt or her father's trial in The Hague will hurt or boost her popularity. Will Imee Marcos run to maintain the family's grip on power? Will other families emerge to challenge these two powerful dynasties?

The outcome of this family drama could significantly impact the delicate regional balance. Washington and Beijing, in particular, are anxiously watching the final act of this drama. The internal power struggles within the Philippines are not just domestic issues; they are closely intertwined with the great power competition surrounding Southeast Asia.