Dr. Alfredo Rojas-Calderón, a communication campaign consultant, analyzed the political and electoral landscape of Paraguay, along with the growing threat of organized crime to democracy regionally and globally. In an interview with ÚH (Ultima Hora), Rojas-Calderón, a Ph.D. in Communication Science and Political Science and an international consultant, provided an in-depth analysis of the future prospects and threats to Paraguayan democracy, as well as the characteristics of Paraguayan voters.

When asked, "How do you view the current political and electoral landscape in Paraguay?" Dr. Rojas-Calderón responded, "The political and electoral landscape is complex, especially for the opposition." He explained, "The historical dominance of the ANR (National Republican Association, Colorado Party) and its generational party identity provide a clear early advantage in next year's municipal elections." This means the opposition must overcome two challenges: first, internal reorganization, and second, external unity. He diagnosed, "The fragmentation seen from the outset threatens the aspirations of the opposition against the Colorado Party's hegemony, which is integrated with the state apparatus." In Paraguayan politics, the Colorado Party has maintained power for a long time, which is attributed to its broad social base and utilization of state resources.

 
The Penetration of Organized Crime into State Institutions

Regarding the impact of organized crime on political parties and state institutions, Dr. Rojas-Calderón presented a dual perspective. First, "organized crime has become one of the main concerns of citizens, if not the most important." Although Peru leads, citizens in Ecuador, Colombia, and Bolivia are similarly affected by insecurity or direct criminal acts. This phenomenon is intensifying across Latin America, particularly with criminal activities such as drug trafficking, illegal mining, and human trafficking weakening state control and amplifying overall social instability. Second, Dr. Rojas-Calderón pointed to "the phenomenon of organized crime infiltrating the state and political organizations." This signifies a deep penetration into the state system, beyond mere influence, and in conjunction with corruption, it shakes the foundations of democracy.

For a serious approach to these issues, he mentioned two key points. One is that "in many countries, political parties are no longer receiving financial support from the state." The other is that "at the same time, political groups and leaders need more resources for their activities, which must take on more professional, technical, and material forms every day." Furthermore, he added, "the economic crisis in many countries limits party and campaign donations from members and businesses." This suggests that difficulties in legitimate fundraising can lead to the influx of illicit funds from organized crime. This issue has been raised multiple times in Mexico and Colombia concerning the link between election funding and organized crime, indicating that Paraguay is likely no exception.

 
Paraguay's Preference for Authoritarianism and the Entrenchment of Inequality

Interestingly, regarding Paraguay's particular preference for authoritarianism, Dr. Rojas-Calderón assessed, "Paraguay is leading as the country with the highest preference for authoritarianism in the region." The statistic that "7 out of 10 Paraguayans would not mind if a non-democratic government came to power to solve problems" is shocking. He offered several reasons for this: first, "the expectation of problem-solving outweighs the preference for a democratic governmental system." For people, problems are ultimately the priority, and if a solution isn't provided, it initially leads to dissatisfaction and later to anger. Second, he noted that "people associate order, stability, and progress with strong leaders." This is true even if it means restricting rights or undermining democracy. This tendency is "especially pronounced when the main problems are instability, corruption, and economic issues." In Latin America, this phenomenon can be found in cases where populist leaders promise short-term solutions with strong leadership, while weakening democratic checks and balances.

On the question of regional inequality, Dr. Rojas-Calderón emphasized, "The fight against inequality is slower and more complex than the fight for democracy itself." Another aspect of inequality is the demand for social security, which is exacerbated by economic crises and tremendous expectations from citizens for problem-solving. However, "it is surprising that reducing inequality is not a priority in most Latin American countries." He stated that social policies are generally much less important than economic, security, public order, and corruption issues. This implies that structural inequalities are entrenched not only in financial terms but also in areas such as education, healthcare, and legal access, which hinders social integration and diminishes the quality of democracy.

 
The Pervasiveness of Corruption and the Threat to Democracy

Regarding the criticism of corruption and its pervasive nature in Paraguay, Dr. Rojas-Calderón asserted, "Corruption is one of the main threats to democracy." He explained that "corruption has a decisive impact on political disaffection." In most countries, citizens feel they are losing the fight against corruption. The perceived level of corruption in Paraguay is quite high. However, he also noted that "there is much cynicism concerning corruption," pointing out that people "only raise issues when they don't benefit, or even criticize while benefiting themselves." This dual attitude exacerbates the difficulty of combating corruption and reveals a widespread moral hazard throughout society.

On the tendencies of transparency and citizen participation in modern democracies, he highlighted two aspects. First, access to public information. Second, technological tools that promote open government and enhance accountability. These advances are not uniform across all countries. In some countries, transparency laws are not properly implemented or are incompletely applied. In other cases, especially at the municipal level, citizen and social control of public administration has made significant progress. However, the effective application of public information laws and the activation of citizen participation platforms remain challenges to be addressed in many countries.

 
Electronic Voting Systems and Electoral Innovation: The Complexity of Political Campaign Finance Control

When asked for his opinion on electronic voting systems and other electoral innovations, Dr. Rojas-Calderón stated, "Despite current technological advancements, it is contradictory that voting, especially vote counting, is done manually." The autonomy of voting is necessary and also provides an answer to the minimum conditions of the electoral process, such as transparency. The key is that "electronic voting reduces human intervention, thereby reducing the possibility of manipulation, particularly during the counting and recording stages." These systems have the advantage of being "more auditable," from the software to the transmitted and printed records. This is a powerful element in enhancing transparency and reliability. Indeed, electronic voting systems have been successfully implemented in countries like Brazil and India, contributing to increased efficiency and transparency in elections.

Regarding attempts to control political campaign finance, Dr. Rojas-Calderón explained that it depends on the situation. He emphasized that one must distinguish between "governments with authoritarian tendencies that amend or enact new electoral laws to prevent their replacement and stay in power longer, thereby restricting state or private funding for opposition parties and simultaneously limiting their activities to the point of almost disappearing." This is a form of opportunistic advantage-taking. Conversely, "the proper transparency of public resources or private donations used in electoral campaigns" is another issue that must be guaranteed. This accountability is essential to prevent illegal funding and the improper use of state funds. Campaign finance regulations in the United States and demands for party funding transparency in Europe are important efforts to maintain the fairness of democracy.

 
Social Media and AI: A Double-Edged Sword for Democracy

Regarding the impact of social media and AI on democracy, Dr. Rojas-Calderón noted that "the impact of technology on democracy and political communication is two-sided." He stated that "while it facilitates processes and enhances work, it also entails threats and challenges." The premise is that these impacts cannot be ignored. The adoption and adaptation of technological tools are not optional but essential. While social media and the internet have not democratized communication as much as expected, "there is no doubt that they have enabled self-communication." Politicians and citizens can now express themselves directly without intermediaries. And these social networks have become "essential platforms for exercising influence and doing so in a micro-segmented manner." Viral dissemination has its own logic.

Regarding this competition, he explained that "factual content, professional information, and electoral messages must compete for attention with unprofessional and entertainment content." To this, one must add "the threat of misinformation, especially in the political sphere." Misinformation exploits the ease of use, accessibility, and potential for mass distribution offered by social media and the internet. Artificial intelligence (AI) is similar in political communication. AI "enables the analysis of large amounts of data, including the micro-segmentation of the public into specific demographic groups." It also "facilitates the automated and mass creation and distribution of content." AI also helps diagnose public opinion and provides better predictive models. However, at the same time, there are growing concerns that the potential misuse of AI, such as deepfakes and manipulating public opinion with chatbots, could pose a serious threat to democracy.

 
Seeking the Future of Democracy Amidst Complex Challenges

Dr. Rojas-Calderón's analysis clearly illustrates the complex challenges facing democracy not only in Paraguay but across Latin America. The strong hegemony of the ANR and the fragmentation of the opposition intensify the difficulties of political competition. The spread of organized crime weakens state control and poses a direct threat to citizens' lives. At the same time, the high preference for authoritarianism reflects skepticism about democratic values, and the entrenchment of inequality exacerbates social discontent.

Nevertheless, technological advancements offer new opportunities to enhance voting transparency and promote citizen participation. However, simultaneously, the potential for misinformation and the misuse of AI can threaten the very essence of democracy. To overcome these complex challenges and strengthen the resilience of democracy, internal reorganization and unity of political parties, a strong response to organized crime, and the restoration of citizens' understanding and support for democratic values are essential. Furthermore, a strategic approach is required to effectively manage the risks of technology while harnessing its positive potential. Democracy in Paraguay and Latin America is currently at a crucial turning point, and how these challenges are overcome will determine its future.