The KOSPI, which plunged over 5% the previous day, rebounded during early trading on the 14th. However, the securities industry advises against rushing into purchases based solely on price drops, noting that uncertainties remain unresolved—including technological pursuits by Chinese semiconductor firms, controversies surrounding the profitability of artificial intelligence (AI) investments, and U.S. inflation jitters.

According to the financial investment industry on the 14th, Samsung Securities pointed to technological catch-ups by Chinese chipmakers, continued foreign selling, and pressures from high oil prices and high interest rates as key factors driving the market decline in a report released yesterday titled, "Background of the Expanded Market Drop and Response Strategies." Jo A-in, a researcher at Samsung Securities, stated, "At this point, rather than aggressively expanding asset allocations, a step-by-step approach of monitoring the progression of major events is more appropriate."

According to the Korea Exchange, as of 10:18 AM on this day, the KOSPI stood at 6,078.19, up 42.84 points (0.71%) from the previous trading session. After rising as high as 6,190.65 in early trading, the index significantly pared its gains. At the same time, the KOSDAQ dropped 1.07% to 828.08.

Foreign selling pressure also persists. According to Korea Exchange trading performance data retrieved at 10:17 AM, foreign investors net-sold approximately 349.9 billion won worth of shares across the total stock market, including the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. The previous day, foreign investors net-sold a staggering 4.4581 trillion won. The KOSPI closed down 5.46% at 6,035.35, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plummeted by over 7% and 10%, respectively.

Another burden is the weakening demand to absorb heavy foreign sell-offs. Kim Seok-hwan, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, analyzed, "While treasury stock repurchases have largely absorbed foreign semiconductor sell-offs up until now, the weakening of buying entities means that the same scale of foreign selling can trigger a much harsher stock shock." He projected that if foreign selling continues, even a technical rebound could require a significant amount of time before returning to an upward trend.

Jung Da-woon, a researcher at LS Securities, similarly diagnosed, "With the additional buying capacity of domestic institutional and retail investors remaining limited, foreign net selling is widening stock price volatility." This implies that it is difficult to judge that selling pressure has dissipated based solely on a rebound following a steep drop.

Concerns over China-driven semiconductor competition remain

Fears surrounding the future profitability of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have escalated following news that China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has made progress in developing next-gen DRAM technology and is pushing to enter the server memory market.

However, Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, pointed out, "The actual mass-production success of CXMT, along with its product yield, performance, and client certifications, have not yet been verified." She analyzed that it is premature to price in the possibility of Chinese oversupply at this stage.

AI profitability and U.S. monetary policy act as variables

The profitability of AI investments and U.S. monetary policies are also key variables. While global tech giants are pouring massive funds into AI data centers, doubts are growing over whether they can secure returns matching their investments. Coupled with rising international oil prices compounding inflation concerns, the market is closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, set to be released at 9:30 PM Korean time on the 14th. A higher-than-expected inflation rate could heighten vigilance regarding additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

For retail investors with limited trading experience, misinterpreting price declines as undervaluation can be particularly risky. Yang Hyun-kyung, a researcher at iM Securities, explained, "Because semiconductors are a cyclical industry, it is difficult to judge undervaluation based solely on low price-to-earnings ratios (PER)." She emphasized that maintaining high profitability in the future matters more than current earnings.

Some voice views on bargain-hunting opportunities

Conversely, some argue that this presents a buying opportunity. Kim Min-gyu, a researcher at KB Securities, suggested, "A phased purchasing strategy could be valid, presenting the KOSPI 5,600–6,000 range as an undervalued zone." This perspective takes into account both the possibility of further market adjustments and the investment appeal based on current price levels.

The securities industry highlights the U.S. CPI, the Producer Price Index (PPI) on the 15th, and the earnings and outlook of global semiconductor companies as major variables to gauge the future direction of the stock market. Analysts also stress the need to verify whether foreign selling pressure is stabilizing and to monitor the actual mass-production capabilities of Chinese semiconductor firms.

[ⓒ Global Economic Times. 무단전재-재배포 금지]