Bangkok, Thailand - Thailand is poised to enter the high-stakes world of international gaming resorts, following the Thai cabinet's recent approval of a draft bill legalizing casinos within large entertainment complexes. This landmark decision could usher in billions of dollars in foreign investment, create thousands of jobs, and potentially generate an estimated $1 billion annually in gaming tax revenue for the government.

The proposed legislation identifies four potential locations for these integrated resorts: the popular tourist destinations of Chiang Mai, Phuket, Chonburi (home to Pattaya), and the bustling capital city of Bangkok. The bill will now proceed through the Thai legislative process, requiring approval from both the lower and upper houses of parliament before reaching the King for his royal assent. Government officials anticipate significant debate and potential amendments as the bill progresses.

The move comes amid strong public support, with earlier consultations indicating that approximately 80 percent of Thais favor the legalization of casinos. This domestic backing aligns with Thailand's burgeoning tourism industry, which has witnessed a remarkable tripling of visitor numbers over the past decade, from 11 million to 35 million annually. While a significant portion (23 percent) of these tourists originate from Western nations, including Russia, Great Britain, Australia, and the United States, China represents a substantial 10 percent of the market, making it a crucial demographic. According to recent data, in 2019, prior to the pandemic, over 11 million tourists visited Thailand from mainland China, contributing to 28% of the total tourist arrivals.

However, China's interest in Thailand's casino ambitions presents a nuanced dynamic. Reports suggest that Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly inquired about the casino plans with the Thai Prime Minister. While reportedly acknowledging the potential of casinos to attract foreign tourists, President Xi has also cautioned about the inherent risks associated with gambling, including the potential for increased crime, corruption, and addiction. This delicate balance will likely influence the final form and implementation of the legislation.

Beyond governmental considerations, the enthusiasm of major international gaming corporations will be pivotal. Thailand's robust tourism sector, coupled with a domestic population of 71 million, presents a compelling market of over 100 million potential annual customers for casino-resorts. This prospect has understandably drawn keen interest from leading industry players.

As Thailand charts this new course, it can look to established gaming hubs for potential models. Macau, with its $28 billion in gross gaming revenue in 2024 generated from 35 million visitors, offers one benchmark. However, Macau's heavy reliance on Chinese tourists (70 percent) limits its direct applicability to Thailand's more diverse tourism base.

Singapore appears a more relevant comparison. With a population of just 5.9 million, the city-state attracts 16.5 million visitors annually. Its two world-class casinos generated over $4 billion in gross gaming revenue in 2024. Notably, Singapore's tourist demographics are more varied, with significant numbers arriving from China (3.6 million in 2023), Indonesia (3.1 million), India (1.4 million), Malaysia (1.2 million), and Australia (1.1 million). This diversified base offers a more attainable target for Thailand, provided its casino-resorts can match Singapore's high standards, exemplified by the $7 billion Marina Bay Sands and its ongoing $3.3 billion expansion.

The experiences of Japan and the United Arab Emirates also provide valuable insights. Japan, with its substantial tourism industry (36.9 million visitors) and large domestic market (124.5 million), is proceeding cautiously with the development of a single integrated resort in Osaka, slated to open in 2030 with an estimated $9.3 billion investment. The UAE, attracting 18.7 million foreign visitors alongside its 10.4 million citizens, is also entering the scene with Wynn Resorts investing $5.1 billion in a project expected to open in 2027.

However, the cautionary tale of Japan looms large. Initial enthusiasm from major gaming companies, including plans for multi-billion dollar investments, ultimately waned due to restrictive regulatory conditions that jeopardized the potential for a reasonable return. This experience underscores the critical importance of establishing an investment-friendly regulatory framework in Thailand.

A key concern highlighted in the current draft bill is the proposal requiring Thai citizens to possess a minimum of $1.5 million in a bank account for at least six months to be eligible to enter a casino. A survey of Thai bank deposits meeting this criterion yielded a mere 10,000 potential customers out of a 70 million population. This limitation could severely undermine the financial viability of multi-billion dollar investments.

Ultimately, the success of Thailand's casino venture hinges on the final legislative outcome. Gaming companies are understandably adopting a wait-and-see approach, drawing lessons from Japan's protracted and ultimately challenging experience. The central question remains: will Thailand emulate the more accessible models of Singapore and the UAE, or will it impose conditions that mirror the investment deterrents seen in Japan? The answer to this question will determine whether Thailand's bet on casino resorts pays off in the long run.