With the U.S. midterm elections just a week away on November 3 (local time), a cautious mood is emerging within the Democratic Party over whether it can recapture the Senate majority in addition to the House, despite currently leading in various polls. Fueling the sentiment for a judgment on the ruling administration—driven by inflation, tariffs, and the fallout from the Iran war—Democrats have threatened traditional Republican strongholds. However, analysts point out that the phenomenon of "hidden Republican voters," the GOP's overwhelming financial muscle, and a Senate map heavily skewed toward conservative regions could trip up the Democratic momentum.

According to CNN on the 24th (local time), current projections for the 100-seat U.S. Senate show Democrats leading (including lean leads) in 47 seats and Republicans in 46, leaving the majority to be decided by a handful of ultra-tight battlegrounds. Given the structural reality where the Vice President, serving as the constitutional Senate President, casts the tie-breaking vote, Republicans only need to secure 50 seats to maintain their majority, whereas Democrats must capture 51 to seize control.

A look at CNN’s polling averages in key battlegrounds reveals fierce Democratic momentum. In Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, both party candidates are tied. In Iowa—where President Donald Trump won by a double-digit margin in the 2024 presidential election—the Democratic candidate is ahead by 1 percentage point. In Maine, the home turf of Republican Senator Susan Collins, Democrats lead by 2 percentage points, while they hold a 3-point lead in both Texas (where no Democratic senator has been elected since 1988) and the battleground state of Michigan. Democrats also lead by 4 percentage points in Ohio, with polls showing them ahead in Alaska as well.

President Trump has also expanded his campaign schedule to rally the Republican base. Initially planning to visit seven states over seven days, he extended the tour to 10 states over 10 days. All destination states are places where Trump won in the 2024 presidential election, even adding Mississippi—a staunch Republican stronghold where no Democratic senator has won since 1982, and where Trump carried a 23-percentage-point margin in 2024.

However, it remains uncertain whether polling leads will translate into actual victories. CNN highlighted that in Senate races held during the Trump era, Republican Senate candidates in states won by Trump outperformed their final pre-election polling averages by an average of 4.1 percentage points on election day. An analysis of U.S. congressional election polls since 1998, published by the British weekly The Economist on the 21st, also showed a tendency for polls to underestimate the actual vote share of a dominant party in heavily partisan regions.

If a similar margin of error repeats in this midterm election, significant battlegrounds such as Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas could tilt toward Republican victories, ultimately handing the Senate majority back to the GOP.

From the outset, this Senate cycle started on unfavorable terrain for Democrats. To claim the Senate majority, Democrats must defend all their existing seats while flipping four seats from the Republicans. Furthermore, incumbent Republicans are seeking re-election in 4 of the 10 major Senate battlegrounds, and 5 of them are regions where President Trump won by a margin of 11 percentage points or more in the 2024 presidential election.

The financial gap is also overwhelming. According to data from media tracking firm AdImpact, the Republican camp has deployed approximately $650 million (approx. 860 billion KRW) more than Democrats in federal and state-level general election ad spending and reservations. Specifically, in the seven Senate races classified as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, the GOP's advertising advantage exceeds $320 million. Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI) told CNN that unexpected expansions of competitive territory—such as Kansas, Texas, Iowa, and Mississippi—have strained campaign funding allocations in some areas over the past three weeks.

Low favorability toward the Democratic Party poses another hurdle. A recent national poll by The New York Times and Siena College showed Democratic candidate support leading Republicans by 11 percentage points. Yet, only 28% of voters in the same survey expressed "satisfaction with the Democratic Party"—figures 8 percentage points lower than both Republican satisfaction ratings and President Trump's job approval rating. In fact, during the 2018 midterm elections amid a fierce anti-Trump wave, Democrats picked up 41 seats to reclaim the House, but Republicans actually gained two seats and solidified their majority in the Senate, which was contested primarily in conservative-leaning regions.

[ⓒ Global Economic Times. 무단전재-재배포 금지]