Buenos Aires, Argentina – The agricultural market in Argentina is a mix of optimism and apprehension. The Rosario Grain Exchange, in its report published last Friday (May 23, 2025), expressed positive expectations for the 2025/26 wheat harvest, forecasting it to be the second-largest in history. Conversely, continued rain is delaying the soybean harvest, raising growing concerns about quality degradation.

According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, the 2025/26 wheat harvest is expected to reach record levels, bolstered by favorable weather forecasts and excellent soil conditions. The exchange anticipates that farmers could expand planting acreage to 7.2 million hectares (17.8 million acres), which could lead to an even larger harvest of 21.2 million tons. Currently, the exchange predicts a harvest of 21 million tons. This figure is exceptionally high in Argentina's wheat production history, approaching the all-time record of 23 million tons set in 2021/22.

The exchange openly stated its hopes, saying, "We hope that reality confirms these optimistic predictions." Argentina is the world's seventh-largest wheat exporter, and its wheat crop significantly impacts the international grain market. Especially after the Russia-Ukraine war highlighted global food security issues, Argentina's stable wheat supply has become even more crucial.

Wheat planting commenced this week, but recent heavy rainfall has severely delayed planting in some regions. This could affect the initial growth stages, potentially leading to slight changes in the final harvest volume. Nevertheless, experts believe that Argentina's vast arable land and modernized agricultural technologies can overcome these short-term delays.

Meanwhile, the Argentine government extended tax exemptions on wheat exports until next March this week. This measure is expected to directly benefit exporters, boosting export competitiveness and helping to stabilize Argentine wheat prices in the international market. The Rosario Grain Exchange assessed that "this measure not only increases producers' profitability but also provides more opportunities for investment in technology and raw materials," predicting that the government's proactive agricultural support policies will positively influence production volume. This indicates that the Argentine government recognizes the agricultural sector as a key driver of the national economy.

 
Soybean: Harvest Delays and Escalating Quality Concerns

In contrast, concerns are mounting in the soybean market. According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, recent heavy storms are likely to further delay the soybean harvest. While harvesting had seen some activity in fields previously inundated by floods, the return of adverse weather conditions is now hindering progress.

According to the exchange's announcement, citing government data, the soybean harvest was 77% complete as of last Thursday (May 22, 2025). However, in Buenos Aires province, a major agricultural hub in Argentina, the harvest rate is only 61%, with virtually no progress in the northern parts of the province over the past week. This is attributed to the region being most affected by recent heavy rainfall. Soybeans are one of Argentina's largest export commodities and hold a significant position as a major supplier in the global soybean market alongside Brazil and the United States. Therefore, Argentina's soybean harvest volume and quality directly impact the international oilseed market.

The exchange warned that "the risk of further harvest delays due to excessive moisture and inaccessibility to fields raises concerns about the potential impact on the quality of unharvested crops." This implies that harvest delays could lead to issues such as mold growth, sprouting, and increased moisture content, thereby reducing the commercial value of soybeans.

The exchange added that while these conditions could affect the recent harvest volume, it is still too early to make precise predictions, maintaining a cautious stance. Soybeans are primarily used in feed and biodiesel production, and quality degradation could lead to reduced productivity of final products and higher prices, potentially causing ripple effects across related industries.

 
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