After struggling throughout the first half of the year, Bitcoin has rebounded sharply in the third quarter, sparking market-wide interest in whether this upward momentum will persist. Over the past three months, Bitcoin has rallied by approximately 40%, supported by a strong recovery in capital inflows through U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Concurrently, a string of upward revisions to price forecasts has fueled growing optimism across the market.

According to CoinMarketCap data as of 1:00 PM on the 7th, Bitcoin is trading around the $85,409 mark. Having rebounded from its late-June low, it has advanced roughly 40% over the last three quarters. Citing Reuters, Citibank recently revised its 12-month target price for Bitcoin upward from $82,000 to $113,000.

Key Drivers Behind the Surge

Market analysts attribute the recent bullish trend to a shift in macroeconomic conditions, a resurgence in institutional capital inflows, and evolving regulatory frameworks in the United States. In particular, the U.S. Treasury’s long-term bond buybacks have triggered a weaker U.S. dollar and reignited the so-called "debasement trade," reviving investor demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin. Citibank likewise highlighted these long-term bond buybacks, a weakening dollar, and ETF inflows as core catalysts for raising its Bitcoin outlook.

Institutional demand through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has also bounced back significantly. In September alone, these products recorded approximately $2.65 billion in net inflows—marking the second-largest monthly net inflow since last October. This represents a dramatic turnaround from May and June, which saw roughly $7.0 billion in net outflows. Entering October, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs maintained a solid trajectory, posting about $130 million in net inflows during the first two trading days.

Looking ahead, Citibank projects an additional $5.0 billion in crypto investment product inflows over the next 12 months. The bank noted that institutional demand via ETFs is likely to persist as advisors and brokerages gradually expand their clients' cryptocurrency allocations.

Regulatory Landscape and Long-Term Outlook

While optimism runs high, the regulatory environment presents a mix of anticipation and caution. In September, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the "Clarity Act," which was designed to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital asset markets. Nevertheless, subsequent moves by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to craft crypto-related rules using its existing authority have fostered expectations that regulatory uncertainty may partially ease.

Long-term bullish sentiments remain prominent as well. On the 5th (local time), U.S. investment publication The Motley Fool reported that ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood projected a target price of $1.5 million (approx. 2 billion won) for Bitcoin by 2030. Wood cited expanding institutional adoption and a favorable U.S. regulatory climate as drivers enabling Bitcoin to cement its role as a global store of value, while also pointing to its potential integration with artificial intelligence as a future growth engine.

What Lies Ahead?

Ultimately, experts suggest that whether Bitcoin's current upward trajectory is merely a short-term rebound or the genesis of a new structural rally depends on three critical variables:

-The sustainability of capital inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs
-The trajectory of U.S. long-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar
-The institutionalization and progress of cryptocurrency regulation

In particular, market participants are closely watching whether institutional demand via ETFs can remain strong enough to underpin further price appreciation, and if risk-on sentiment can endure in a high long-term interest rate environment.

[ⓒ Global Economic Times. 무단전재-재배포 금지]