The Philippine political scene is undergoing a period of upheaval ahead of the May 2025 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election. With the disintegration of the political alliance between the Marcos and Duterte families, the Duterte family has been placed under legal scrutiny, sparking controversy over whether justice is being served or being used as a tool for political purposes.

The election of President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte in 2022 was the result of the Marcos-Duterte alliance. This alliance also temporarily prevented former President Rodrigo Duterte from being extradited to The Hague by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in connection with his "war on drugs." However, recent political differences have fractured the alliance, escalating tensions with public criticisms and threats exchanged between the two families.

On February 5, 2025, Vice President Sara Duterte was impeached and is scheduled to stand trial on June 30, 2025, after the Senate elections. Meanwhile, on March 11, 2025, former President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested pursuant to an arrest warrant issued by the ICC on charges of crimes against humanity committed during his "war on drugs." This arrest marks a rare and significant moment of international accountability, demonstrating that even powerful actors can be held accountable under international law for crimes disguised as domestic policy.

Former President Rodrigo Duterte had been in conflict with senior UN officials since 2016. In February 2018, the ICC announced a preliminary investigation into deaths related to Duterte’s anti-drug policies, and the Philippines withdrew from the ICC the following month. The ICC investigation was suspended as the Philippine government claimed domestic investigations were underway, requesting delays and subsequent suspensions. The new administration of President Marcos Jr. initially refused cooperation as well, but the ICC investigation was resumed in 2023 due to a lack of progress in domestic investigations.

However, in late 2024, President Marcos Jr. announced that he would comply with obligations to Interpol rather than the ICC. In January 2025, the Philippine Justice Minister stated that the government was willing to cooperate with international bodies.

The question now is how the legal proceedings will affect the Duterte family's political future. Public trust in Vice President Sara Duterte, who is being mentioned as a potential candidate for the 2028 presidential election, appears to remain high. A Pulse Asia poll from February 2025 indicated that nearly all registered voters had heard of the impeachment. Among them, 45% opposed it, while only 26% expressed support.

Meanwhile, President Marcos’ approval rating fell from 45% in September 2024 to 30% in February 2025. A Pulse Asia poll from March 2025 showed that President Marcos' approval rating had dropped to 25%, with disapproval rising to 53%. In contrast, Vice President Sara Duterte's approval rating rose from 52% to 59% in February.

Duterte supporters held rallies in Manila, Mindanao, and Visayas on March 15, 2025. On March 28, Rodrigo Duterte’s 80th birthday, thousands demanded “bring him home” in Davao, the Duterte family’s stronghold.

However, the "war on drugs" also mobilized thousands of protesters against former President Duterte. A Stratbase ADR Institute survey found that 51% of Filipinos believed Duterte should be held accountable for crimes committed during his campaign.

A crucial battleground for the Duterte family’s immediate national political aspirations will be the 12 seats in the Senate. A two-thirds vote is required to convict Vice President Sara Duterte, meaning just nine senators could block impeachment and save her presidential hopes. However, Marcos’ allies are currently poised to take three-quarters of the available Senate seats.

Nevertheless, Philippine politics remains unpredictable. Ironically, the once-exiled and disgraced Marcos family was able to rise like a phoenix after being ousted by the People Power Revolution and facing serious human rights abuse allegations. Today, it is the Duterte family that enjoys significant domestic public support despite facing serious legal challenges at both national and international levels.

Crucially, the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte and the ongoing international trials were made possible by the collapse of the political alliance between the Marcos and Duterte families. As long as the partnership held, accountability remained out of reach. Its collapse opened the door to long-stalled international legal mechanisms, highlighting how intertwined political power and justice are in the Philippine context. Justice is finally within reach. However, whether it will endure beyond political maneuvering remains a question that will shape the future of Philippine democracy and its relationship with international law.

The question now is whether Vice President Sara Duterte can survive her impeachment trial and whether the institutions meant to uphold justice can resist the gravitational pull of dynastic politics. Crucially, it is the Senate, not the judiciary, that will conduct her trial, adding a layer of political influence. The 2025 Senate elections could play a pivotal role in determining not only her political survival but also whether accountability in the Philippines can transcend political interests or remain another tool in a high-stakes game of power.

Whether justice is genuinely being served or being recycled as a political weapon remains uncertain. What is clear is that the intersection of domestic and international law with dynastic politics in the Philippines continues to challenge the meaning of accountability, shaping public perception and the credibility of legal and democratic institutions.