Ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for the 3rd of next month, early voting is surging across key swing states. In particular, the sharp increase in voter turnout among registered Democrats and independents is significantly outpacing registered Republicans, signaling that enthusiasm is heating up largely around the Democratic base.

According to data compiled by the University of Florida Election Lab as of 7:24 PM on the 25th (local time), 27,997,720 voters across the United States had already cast their ballots. Compared to the same point 9 days before the 2022 midterms (approximately 20.4 million), this represents a 37% increase.

Looking specifically at the 27 states where party registration information is available, out of 13,744,637 early voters, registered Democrats accounted for 6,204,279 (45.1%), which was about 1.98 million more than registered Republicans at 4,224,451 (30.7%). Independent and minor-party registered voters stood at 3,315,907 (24.1%).

CNN reported that the proportion of Democratic voters in early voting across key swing states has increased compared to two years ago. The high voting enthusiasm among the Democratic base—previously observed in primary elections, special elections, and public opinion polls—is manifesting in early voting as well.

This high early voting enthusiasm among the Democratic base is appearing not only in swing states but also in Republican-leaning regions. According to a New York Times analysis of state election data through the 22nd, early voting in Kansas surged by about 69% compared to the same period in 2022, Maine by 41%, and Iowa by 24%. An analysis by Catawba College Professor Michael Bitzer showed that in North Carolina, early voting surpassed 1.2 million ballots—a 37% increase from the same point in 2022—driven by increases among registered Democrats (47%) and independents (60%), while registered Republicans saw only a 2.6% increase.

University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald told The Hill that states like Kansas, Maine, Iowa, and Nebraska are also seeing larger increases among Democrats and independents than Republicans. “It’s the same pattern. Democrats and independents are active, and Republicans are not as active,” he said. He evaluated that this “explains why the competitive landscape is shifting toward Republican-leaning states,” adding, “Early voting data supports the idea that current poll numbers showing Democratic strength are accurate, and that there are no signs of a massive polling error in this election.” However, he noted that it is still premature to definitively judge the final outcome based solely on early voting figures, as Republican voters traditionally tend to concentrate at polling places on Election Day.

Signs of change are also emerging in Texas, where President Trump won in the 2024 presidential election. According to an analysis of approximately 2.06 million ballots cast through the 22nd by the election analysis firm Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), the proportion of Democratic-leaning voters was estimated at 44.3%, and Republican-leaning voters at 43.7%. Among Hispanic early voters, Democratic-leaning voters outnumbered Republican-leaning ones by about 2.5 to 1. However, because Texas does not require party registration upon voter registration, these figures are estimates based on a statistical model.

The favorable early voting trend for Democrats also aligns with cracks appearing within President Trump’s traditional base. A joint poll released on the 18th by the Washington Post, ABC News, and Ipsos showed that 22% of registered voters who voted for President Trump in the 2024 presidential election currently evaluate his job performance negatively. This accounts for about 8% of all registered voters.

Most of these voters are Republican supporters or independents who appeared disillusioned with the war in Iran, high inflation, and tariff policies. Notably, among voters who turned away after supporting President Trump, only 53% responded that they would definitely vote in this midterm election or had already voted. This was 23 percentage points lower than the 76% of voters who still support President Trump. While disillusionment with President Trump may not necessarily translate into Democratic votes, this suggests the potential to depress Republican voter turnout.

Changes in support among Hispanic voters, who played a crucial role in President Trump’s 2024 presidential victory, are also drawing attention. A joint poll released on the 21st by the New York Times and Siena College showed that 61% of Hispanic voters intend to support Democrats in this midterm election, leading Republicans (31%) by 30 percentage points. During the 2024 presidential election, President Trump secured 44% of Hispanic voters.

[ⓒ Global Economic Times. 무단전재-재배포 금지]