As North Korea’s exports to China grow rapidly every year, forecasts suggest that this year’s annual performance will more than double that of three years ago. This is the result of China continuously expanding North Korea’s channels for earning foreign currency as the UN North Korea Sanctions Committee has become toothless. Furthermore, concerns are rising that the resumption of trade driven by the opening of the New Yalu River Bridge and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s “same-day visit to China” could effectively neutralize international sanctions against North Korea.

According to data released by China's General Administration of Customs on the 26th, North Korea’s exports to China from January to September this year reached $483.57 million (approx. 639.8 billion won), a 50.5% increase compared to $321.38 million during the same period last year. Having already surpassed last year’s total annual performance ($442.4 million), the growth margin is expected to expand even further with the remaining fourth-quarter figures.

Compared specifically to the annual performance of 2023, this year’s figure is highly likely to more than double. North Korea’s exports to China stood at $291.75 million in 2023 during the post-COVID-19 recovery period, before increasing significantly each year to $346.95 million in 2024.

This growth is driven by a widening gap in monitoring North Korea sanctions following the termination of the UN Security Council North Korea Sanctions Committee panel of experts in April 2024, alongside China gradually widening bypass routes.

For instance, according to a report published last July by the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), North Korea's earnings from overseas dispatched workers—combining both general and Information Technology (IT) sectors—were estimated to have surged by 28.9% from $380 million in 2023 to $490 million last year.

This effectively means that UN Security Council Resolution 2397, which mandated the repatriation of North Korean workers earning incomes abroad by December 2019, is failing to be properly implemented.

Analysts suggest that political backgrounds also played a role in the expansion of North Korea's exports to China. North Korea has shown closer alignment with Russia since the Russia-Ukraine war. Additionally, with U.S. President Donald Trump continuously sending “love calls” for North Korea-U.S. dialogue, North Korea's leverage has risen over the past few years. Analysts note that Chinese President Xi Jinping, while putting effort into improving North Korea-China relations, chose the expansion of trade volume as a tangible outcome of cooperation.

Park Seung-chan, a professor of China Studies at Yongin University, analyzed, “Even though President Xi did not meet Chairman Kim in person this time, the fact that China’s state-run CCTV broadcasted the visit itself strongly demonstrates the determination to strengthen North Korea-China relations. There likely was an agreement between North Korea and China to expand imports of North Korean products, followed by instructions given to Chinese companies to increase imports.”

Amid this trend, trade between North Korea and China is expected to expand further with the opening of the New Yalu River Bridge. Opened on the 15th, the New Yalu River Bridge is a four-lane round-trip bridge connecting Dandong, China, and Sinuiju, North Korea. It is set to vitalize the outbound shipment of North Korean goods and the inbound transport of raw materials and supplies via large freight trucks.

Human exchanges are also projected to expand moving forward. If the attraction of Chinese tourists gets into full swing through Chairman Kim’s signature project, the Wonsan-Kalma Coastal Tourist Region, North Korea’s channels for securing foreign currency could widen even further. With tourism revenues added to merchandise trade, the possibility decreases that North Korea will feel the need to respond to international sanctions relief or economic cooperation proposals from South Korea.

However, a variable remains: if the expansion of trade via the New Yalu River Bridge leads to the inflow of sanction-prohibited items, international criticism of China could intensify. Cho Han-bum, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), analyzed, “Rash easing of sanctions could subject Chinese companies to massive damage from secondary sanctions. Chairman Kim’s visit to China can also be viewed as a move to pressure China into lifting more sanctions.”

Meanwhile, some analyze that even if North Korea’s exports to China steadily increase, the scale of imports remains much larger, meaning that the continuation of such trade imbalances will impose burdens on the North Korean economy. From January to September this year, North Korea’s imports from China stood at $1.78907 billion, resulting in a trade deficit reaching $1.3055 billion.

[ⓒ Global Economic Times. 무단전재-재배포 금지]